Post Match Raiders v Warriors - [Round 1, 2025]

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I notice is all very quiet at the Club this week since the team's return. I for one would welcome an honest update for the members on what's been the focus this week and the Agar investigations...... has the video been examined? No hype please, just an honest straight forward status report following the debacle last weekend, given we had a full week of hype leading up to it.

Perhaps a training comment from AW, an investigation comment from CG and in this case it is probably justified in a short comment to the fans (or Members at least) from the owner given the significant and untimely fall from grace.
 

NZWarriors.com

Madge has Haas, Carrigan, Reynolds, Hunt, Cobbo and Walsh that bring X factor and game management players next to those selections.
Unfortunately we don’t.

Your point is not squarely rebutting my point -

My point is that picking stodgy players helps you win. Brisbane had most of those stars last year and had a losing season. My case I am putting forward is that it was partly because they made picks last year like Piakura which is what I call a fan selection - this year Madge has gone to the un sexy selection of Goswieski and he has moved Cobbo from the centres where they gambled with him last year to a more conservative choice of wing and they put the journeyman Shibasaki at centre this year. Shibasaki would not have got a look in to the Broncos last year as he has no X factor at all.

My point is you can't have 17 stodgy players obviously. But in the 50 50 calls the successful long time experienced coaches with runs on the board make stodgy calls that actually work while a team the fans would pick always lose.

I understand the point you are making though and it is a good one. We are simply not going to be as successful as the Broncos this year no matter which way we arrange the deck chairs on the titanic. I understand that. My point is just an esoteric point about team selection strategies. I have never road tested it before on a forum so there are going to be some nuanced flaws in what I am saying.
 
Your point is not squarely rebutting my point -

My point is that picking stodgy players helps you win. Brisbane had most of those stars last year and had a losing season. My case I am putting forward is that it was partly because they made picks last year like Piakura which is what I call a fan selection - this year Madge has gone to the un sexy selection of Goswieski and he has moved Cobbo from the centres where they gambled with him last year to a more conservative choice of wing and they put the journeyman Shibasaki at centre this year. Shibasaki would not have got a look in to the Broncos last year as he has no X factor at all.

My point is you can't have 17 stodgy players obviously. But in the 50 50 calls the successful long time experienced coaches with runs on the board make stodgy calls that actually work while a team the fans would pick always lose.

I understand the point you are making though and it is a good one. We are simply not going to be as successful as the Broncos this year no matter which we arrange the deck chairs on the titanic. I understand that. My point is just an esoteric point about team selection strategies. I have never road tested it before on a forum so there are going to be some nuanced flaws in what I am saying.
Yeah I hear you.
If I am following correctly it’s like the “sexier” choice sometimes is not right for the team and you need the “stodgy” type player for the benefit of team dynamics.
I totally agree with that logic.

You brought up the Broncos though and that’s why I rebutted with the type of players they have.
It’s a small sample size though with Gosiseki and Shibasaki, 1 win against a Roosters team half guttered.

We seem to be in a bit of a hole and I do think our Stodgy players Capewell, Nikoure and CNK imo should make way for the youngsters if they don’t pick their games up in like the next 2 weeks.
 
Yeah I hear you.
If I am following correctly it’s like the “sexier” choice sometimes is not right for the team and you need the “stodgy” type player for the benefit of team dynamics.
I totally agree with that logic.

You brought up the Broncos though and that’s why I rebutted with the type of players they have.
It’s a small sample size though with Gosiseki and Shibasaki, 1 win against a Roosters team half guttered.

We seem to be in a bit of a hole and I do think our Stodgy players Capewell, Nikoure and CNK imo should make way for the youngsters if they don’t pick their games up in like the next 2 weeks.
Great response @WA Warrior yes your synopsis of my theory is accurate and I think describes what I am trying to say better than how I put it across myself. As I said this is my first time road testing this esoteric theory on the forum so I appreciate some nuanced feedback to fine tune it.

Yes our stodgy player selections are Capewell instead of Laban, Niukore starting ahead of Leka, and CNK at fullback ahead of TMM or Taine. Ford would also qualify as a stodgy selection.
My points in my original post were despite picking those four we weren't stodgy enough -
1) At least by their jersey numbers we appeared to switch our 2nd rowers to different edges
2) Metcalf should have been 6 and the coach just said no to his dream of being a 7.
3) Metcalf should not have goal kicked. The Stodgy selection would have been Pompey.
4) Barnett should have been prop would have been the stodgy selection rather than being "tricky" and at the last minute playing games by shifting him to lock.
5) Clark would have been the stodgy choice for lock.

I don't know what to say about our bench poor use of Leka and Vaimauga that frustrated the whole forum and made us all pull our hair out. I guess that was stodgy not to choose to use them but then why on earth were they picked at all?

On a final tangent about the poor bench use of those two up and coming stars - I did a plus minus on everyone we gained and lost from 2024 to 2025 including Tohu's retirement and Dallin being out most of the season.

Our starting 13 has treaded water from last year. But our main improvement is our bench. Game 1 last year we had Ale and Bunty - this year Game 1 we replaced them for the future stars of Leka and Vaimauga. Yet despite that being our key area of improvement from last year and might I add our bench is where we had it over the raiders last week when I sized up their 17 we chose not to leverage our bench advantage. We really only used half our bench. It was exasperating. So I don't know if that was Stodgy or just insanity. I think that was just too weird to fit into my Stodgy theory.
 
This is going to be an adventurous post based on an adventurous theory. Please skip this post if you like reading about facts and proven theories. This is a bit of conjecture. No Flames please as I don't even know if I can write this up well as it is a half thought only.

Whenever when following the black caps the selectors picked a team the fans would pick we lost badly. Whenever the selections were boring and stodgy leading to pages of complaints before the match the team did very well and exceeded all expectations.

This team for the Round one was more like a fan picked exciting team than a stodgy boring one an experienced coach would pick

1) Metcalf at 7 was adventurous and was either going to pay off in spades or be a clusterfuck and it proved to be the latter at least in this first game.
2) Egan playing the whole 80 and four forwards on the bench, Was a gamble on Egan's endurance. Did it work? I guess so. Nonetheless it was a risk.
3) Barnett to lock at the last minute to counter them putting their big guy at lock. Was an extravagant risk like a fan would come up with and not a long serving NRL coach.
4) Capewell swapped Edges to the 11 jersey - I understand he played much of last year at 12. That was a gamble probably to bring out the best of him and Niukore. Did it work. It didn't seem to. Unless they swapped on game day and didn't pay on the side their number indicated.
5) Metcalf was given the kicking duties when Pompey is more experienced. Another gamble when a stodgy decision would have been to stick with "the devil we know" ie Pompey.
6) In a move fans would make Leka and Vaimauga were selected on the bench, I don't know what to say about this as then they weren't actually used when the game was alive and in the balance.
7) CHt to 6 was a gamble ahead of the more proven TMM. This one seemed to pay off.
8) Tuapiki to the wing was a move the fans liked - a stodgy decision drawing ire from the fans would have been Ed Kosi to the wing. Yet in a match where we struggled for PCMs in the first twenty minutes his hit ups would have been quite valuable compared to Tuapiki's.

I am not advocating he should have done any of these conservative alternative stodgy decisions. But I am making a post that I saw this on the cards when the team list was named that we had picked a team the fans would pick rather than a stodgy stuck in the mud team the fans would have disliked but might have got the job across the line.
So reflecting, we lost to the Raiders because we pressured Webster not to use Kosi???
 
So reflecting, we lost to the Raiders because we pressured Webster not to use Kosi???
I have a unsubstantiated theory that Kosi would have played round one all other factors being equal however my theory is that Kosi played so poorly in round 1 of the pre-season that he booked himself a one way no return spaceship flight into the sun.
We may never ever see Kosi play first grade again if my hunch is correct. Especially since they are giving Harper a run on the wing in NSW cup - I think Harper will take Kosi's spot off first drop reserve winger.
Eventually trade offs need to be made and the coach thinks "I would like to make the conservative stodgy call but what I saw dished up was too extreme".
 
I have a unsubstantiated theory that Kosi would have played round one all other factors being equal however my theory is that Kosi played so poorly in round 1 of the pre-season that he booked himself a one way no return spaceship flight into the sun.
We may never ever see Kosi play first grade again if my hunch is correct. Especially since they are giving Harper a run on the wing in NSW cup - I think Harper will take Kosi's spot off first drop reserve winger.
Eventually trade offs need to be made and the coach thinks "I would like to make the conservative stodgy call but what I saw dished up was too extreme".
I really thought Kosi was coming good before the big knee injury.

The fire seemed to go out of his runs after that and he just went low impact, conservative.

Actually, that seems to happen to everyone in Websters team. Will we watch it happen to Vaimaunga and Leka this year…
 
I really thought Kosi was coming good before the big knee injury.

The fire seemed to go out of his runs after that and he just went low impact, conservative.

Actually, that seems to happen to everyone in Websters team. Will we watch it happen to Vaimaunga and Leka this year…
Given my Stodgy vs Sexy motif

Please for shits and Giggles as my buddy weigh in on which is the right call "Be Stodgy or go for Sexier option" with these choices

1) CNK at full back
2) Marata
3) Capewell
4) Ford if he is limited to off the bench
 
1 - stodgy
2 - stodgy
3 - sexier (Laban)
4 - Sexier (Bunty or Vaimaunga)
I would go Stodgy on CNK until it was obvious to the media and even his whanau he was cooked and then pull him forever and tell him he is free to find another club. If I took him out of fullback I would not reinvent him into a centre. Let another club do that with him.
I would not pull him sooner as I can't understand his sudden poor form starting last year. I don't get it? I once had a bad season in cricket where I averaged 3.2 !!!! I wasn't at all concerned as I knew how form worked and next year I was back close to the top of the runs charts for the team. He should be able to click back into form He is only 29. I would keep the faith in him until it becomes obvious he just won't bounce back. But again I have never seen this happen before from someone in their twenties. Plenty of times to old players but not to people in their prime,

Marata I would keep - he is on the improve from last year.
Capewell I would keep - I just don't think he tried his hardest in the last match. He seems to deploy his energy strategically as he knows it is a long season. If the game had been closer he would have played much better. Once the game got away on us he put his cue in the rack and put in a pay cheque performance. I don't begrudge him that as we were not going to win that game. Better me observing that from him than the coaches though. Coaches hate guys giving less than 100 because the ship has sailed in a game.
Ford - I keep telling you there is something in him. Somewhere buried. Webster can sniff it too I can tell. I do agree he should only be a bench player than a starter. People keep saying he has a huge motor and can play 80 He does not have a huge motor at all. He starts blowing chunks after 25 minutes and can be last to retreat 10 metres in an effort to conserve his fuel tank so he can last 80. If he is good at lasting 80 it is because he is good at taking short cuts that save his strength such as not hitting hard in tackles and generally jogging around. He in the games he did come off the bench last year played with far more enthusiasm and Zest for the twenty minutes he was out there. So I would make him a limited minute bench player.
 
I would go Stodgy on CNK until it was obvious to the media and even his whanau he was cooked and then pull him forever and tell him he is free to find another club. If I took him out of fullback I would not reinvent him into a centre. Let another club do that with him.
I would not pull him sooner as I can't understand his sudden poor form starting last year. I don't get it? I once had a bad season in cricket where I averaged 3.2 !!!! I wasn't at all concerned as I knew how form worked and next year I was back close to the top of the runs charts for the team. He should be able to click back into form He is only 29. I would keep the faith in him until it becomes obvious he just won't bounce back. But again I have never seen this happen before from someone in their twenties. Plenty of times to old players but not to people in their prime,

Marata I would keep - he is on the improve from last year.
Capewell I would keep - I just don't think he tried his hardest in the last match. He seems to deploy his energy strategically as he knows it is a long season. If the game had been closer he would have played much better. Once the game got away on us he put his cue in the rack and put in a pay cheque performance. I don't begrudge him that as we were not going to win that game. Better me observing that from him than the coaches though. Coaches hate guys giving less than 100 because the ship has sailed in a game.
Ford - I keep telling you there is something in him. Somewhere buried. Webster can sniff it too I can tell. I do agree he should only be a bench player than a starter. People keep saying he has a huge motor and can play 80 He does not have a huge motor at all. He starts blowing chunks after 25 minutes and can be last to retreat 10 metres in an effort to conserve his fuel tank so he can last 80. If he is good at lasting 80 it is because he is good at taking short cuts that save his strength such as not hitting hard in tackles and generally jogging around. He in the games he did come off the bench last year played with far more enthusiasm and Zest for the twenty minutes he was out there. So I would make him a limited minute bench player.
Completely agree on CNK. He deserves to be given every opportunity to come back to peak but we can’t wait forever.

Niukore - has huge upside if they get him right. Last season was wrecked by injury. Worth persisting but possibly from the bench? Again needs to perform sooner or later though… the better out of Niukore and Capewell if your choosing one underperformed to remove.

Capewell - to little to often for me. 8 missed tackles is mentally not there. A tacklebot that can’t tackle adds nothing.

Ford - we simply have better options. Ford offers nothing on attack and his defence is not dominant and filled with misses and errors.
 
Completely agree on CNK. He deserves to be given every opportunity to come back to peak but we can’t wait forever.

Niukore - has huge upside if they get him right. Last season was wrecked by injury. Worth persisting but possibly from the bench? Again needs to perform sooner or later though… the better out of Niukore and Capewell if your choosing one underperformed to remove.

Capewell - to little to often for me. 8 missed tackles is mentally not there. A tacklebot that can’t tackle adds nothing.

Ford - we simply have better options. Ford offers nothing on attack and his defence is not dominant and filled with misses and errors.
Oh man don't make me Capewell's only supporter on the site I used to be really down on him 4 o5 5 years ago as when he played for top tier teams he was ever so slightly a hungus. Eg on the 4th tackle (not the last tackle) he would chip and chase for himself to run on to and yes it would come off and what a great gutsy call the commentators would say but why is a forward doing chip and chase anyway. He liked to express himself too much.
I am going to say a swear word here and the moderators have asked me to do so with caution as it is family web site but I think it is called for to make my point well.
Capewell has a case of and is developing a case of I-don't-give-a-fuck-itis
He is a very good player and if the team turns around he will turn into a big asset Don't give up on him .His attitude will rise on and fall like the Dow Jones Index based upon where we sit in the ladder. Aim high and plan to win and he will come on board.
 
Completely agree on CNK. He deserves to be given every opportunity to come back to peak but we can’t wait forever.

Niukore - has huge upside if they get him right. Last season was wrecked by injury. Worth persisting but possibly from the bench? Again needs to perform sooner or later though… the better out of Niukore and Capewell if your choosing one underperformed to remove.

Capewell - to little to often for me. 8 missed tackles is mentally not there. A tacklebot that can’t tackle adds nothing.

Ford - we simply have better options. Ford offers nothing on attack and his defence is not dominant and filled with misses and errors.
CNK, Niukore, Capewell and Ford are not young players on the improve.
Their best is behind them.
In round 1 the first three were not up to speed and won’t be anymore.
Ford is Ford which is number 28 or 29 in your top 30 who would get a game when we are injury decimated.
 
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