General Will we make the 8?

[sydneywarrior92]

Amusing I think 6th placed team has a negative win/loss record This ain’t Super Rugby!

only 5 teams have positive records. Teams in the log jam keep losing to the top 4, so the gap just keeps getting wider. It's entirely possible that 8th place could get in with just 10 wins this year.

 

[CWC]

So Panthers is 7th in the live ladder and could be in the 8 if results this weekend go their way

 

[sydneywarrior92]

View attachment 13471

So Panthers is 7th in the live ladder and could be in the 8 if results this weekend go their way

only for one week. They'll fall back out after we belt them next week.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

only for one week. They'll fall back out after we belt them next week.

turns out they didn't even make it to Sunday!

 

[CWC]

Wow so it will be Dolphins, Broncos, Panthers and Roosters duking it out for 2 spots, can’t believe Cowboys already fallen out of the 8 behind panthers

Winning R1 as a top 4 side (ideally hosting it) makes a huge difference as the team we face in R3 would be battered by 1 of the 4 above or vise versa

 

[Makasene]

I categorically said Penrith could not make the 8.

That was based on long-term trends of points required.

Definitely did not forsee a situation where 8th place could be achieved with historically low numbers.

For the record, if they make it, I don't think Penrith will win the comp. But.... Who would bet against it?

 

[CWC]

I categorically said Penrith could not make the 8.

That was based on long-term trends of points required.

Definitely did not forsee a situation where 8th place could be achieved with historically low numbers.

For the record, if they make it, I don't think Penrith will win the comp. But.... Who would bet against it?

Definitely would prefer not to play them R1 or 2 since their experience will show through until they meet a less experienced team that's a lot stronger than them this year

 

[sydneywarrior92]

I categorically said Penrith could not make the 8.

That was based on long-term trends of points required.

Definitely did not forsee a situation where 8th place could be achieved with historically low numbers.

For the record, if they make it, I don't think Penrith will win the comp. But.... Who would bet against it?

if I'm being honest, I'd be more terrified of playing Brisbane in the finals if they ever get on a run towards the end of the year. Still have nightmares of that 2023 prelim. They pretty much still have the same forward pack whose physicality we couldn't match and whose offloads we couldn't handle on that day. Granted, we have a fiercer pack now that has already outmuscled them once this year. But they are in principle the sort of team that can disrupt our defensive structures. We've got Penrith covered this year imo.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

NRL Magic Numbers

The BSmachine (they do a weekly power rankings on Reddit) has the minimum finals footy number at 25 points.

We are at 24.

Minimum for a top 4 finish is 31.

These will obviously shift, but based off this prediction, we would be looking at locking in a top 4 finish with three more games in the bag, plus the one remaining bye round.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

Wow so it will be Dolphins, Broncos, Panthers and Roosters duking it out for 2 spots, can’t believe Cowboys already fallen out of the 8 behind panthers

Winning R1 as a top 4 side (ideally hosting it) makes a huge difference as the team we face in R3 would be battered by 1 of the 4 above or vise versa

I only think that the top 4 is secure at this pt. Spots 5-8 are still very much up for grabs.

The Broncos vs Sharks game this week is a battle for 5th. Sharks can pull away from the chasing pack with a win. But if Broncs win, they overtake the sharks and 5th becomes part of the logjam. At that pt, Sharks, Broncos, Phins and Roosters could be scrapping for positions 5th - 8th. I don't think anyone else are much hope of pushing into the 8 if I'm being honest.

 

[Po11um]

I would be more concerned playing brisbane in the finals than Penrith

 

[sydneywarrior92]

NRL Magic Numbers

The BSmachine (they do a weekly power rankings on Reddit) has the minimum finals footy number at 25 points.

We are at 24.

Minimum for a top 4 finish is 31.

These will obviously shift, but based off this prediction, we would be looking at locking in a top 4 finish with three more games in the bag, plus the one remaining bye round.

last 4 years the cut off for 4th has been 16 wins. With 3 byes, that is 38 pts not 31. So at a minimum we'd still need 6 more wins out of our last 11. Based on current trends, that seems very likely: winning all our home games would get us there. But it is certainly not a lock.

 

[CWC]

if I'm being honest, I'd be more terrified of playing Brisbane in the finals if they ever get on a run towards the end of the year. Still have nightmares of that 2023 prelim. They pretty much still have the same forward pack whose physicality we couldn't match and whose offloads we couldn't handle on that day. Granted, we have a fiercer pack now that has already outmuscled them once this year. But they are in principle the sort of team that can disrupt our defensive structures. We've got Penrith covered this year imo.

I'd be tempted to move Capewell to the centres just to smash Staggs

last 4 years the cut off for 4th has been 16 wins. With 3 byes, that is 38 pts not 31. So at a minimum we'd still need 6 more wins out of our last 11. Based on current trends, that seems very likely: winning all our home games would get us there. But it is certainly not a lock.

The way 5-8th are going maybe you don't even need 16 wins for a top 4!

 

[sydneywarrior92]

I'd be tempted to move Capewell to the centres just to smash Staggs



The way 5-8th are going maybe you don't even need 16 wins for a top 4!

Yeah, it's possible that this year will be different from the last 3 years. If the top 4 keep beating everyone else, then it's entirely possible that teams 6-8 will enter finals with a losing record that they currently have right now. Maybe just 10 wins is enough to scrape into the bottom end of the 8 this year. But on the flip side, that probably means though that the gulf between top 4 and the rest will be bigger this year. So 4th might have 18+ wins instead of the traditional 16.

 

[FormerlyJamesW]

last 4 years the cut off for 4th has been 16 wins. With 3 byes, that is 38 pts not 31. So at a minimum we'd still need 6 more wins out of our last 11. Based on current trends, that seems very likely: winning all our home games would get us there. But it is certainly not a lock.

The heavy weighting of results would probably actually bring this number up... If there wasn't already a gap between the top4 and the rest of the comp.

This prediction model goes of points distribution throughout the season, which has been lop sided to the top 4, this year.

However, of the points distribution continues to be as even as it has been, for teams outside the 4, then this models number could be correct.

Really the barrier of entry for the 4 depends on how the teams below it perform. That's not to say that the 4th team will only just reach the barrier, it's just an averaged out number.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

The heavy weighting of results would probably actually bring this number up... If there wasn't already a gap between the top4 and the rest of the comp.

This prediction model goes of points distribution throughout the season, which has been lop sided to the top 4, this year.

However, of the points distribution continues to be as even as it has been, for teams outside the 4, then this models number could be correct.

Really the barrier of entry for the 4 depends on how the teams below it perform. That's not to say that the 4th team will only just reach the barrier, it's just an averaged out number.

yeah. I think I had another post making this argument too. Since the top 4 keeps beating the rest, the bar for the lower end of the 8 might be lower (10 wins vs 13). But the flip side of that is that it means that the 4th placed team might have 18+ wins instead of the traditional 16. The gap between us and 5th is already 6 pts. If Broncos beat sharks, that gap widens to 8 pts.

 

[MrFrankWhite]

The Broncos vs Sharks game this week is a battle for 5th.

I hope the Sharks destroy them.

 

[sydneywarrior92]

I hope the Sharks destroy them.

It's probably better if Broncs win. We are then 8 pts ahead of 5th. This then gives us a chance to put 10 pts between us and 5th by beating Brisbane the week after (round 17). With the bye the week after that (rd 18), that would pretty much end any risk that we finish outside the top 4.

 

[CWC]

It's probably better if Broncs win. We are then 8 pts ahead of 5th. This then gives us a chance to put 10 pts between us and 5th by beating Brisbane the week after (round 17). With the bye the week after that (rd 18), that would pretty much end any risk that we finish outside the top 4.

Broncos lose to sharks and us, loses momentum and fall out of top 8 and implode again is probably our best interest lol, especially if we're concerned about playing them in the playoffs

 

[sydneywarrior92]

Broncos lose to sharks and us, loses momentum and fall out of top 8 and implode again is probably our best interest lol, especially if we're concerned about playing them in the playoffs

Although a more confident broncos are a tough prospect, I'd prefer to play them when they are back at their peak. There's no challenge in beating them when they are down. If we beat them at their best at their home turf, that'll be another feather in our cap as a genuine contender.