General Will we make the 8?

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📝 Summary:

The forum discussion centers on the New Zealand Warriors' prospects for NRL finals qualification, particularly the feasibility of securing a Top 4 or Top 8 spot amid fluctuating form and injuries. Early optimism highlighted the team's strong start to the season, with members calculating points targets for finals contention and analyzing favorable run-home fixtures against lower-ranked teams #1#3. User analysis emphasized that winning 6-7 of their remaining games could secure a Top 4 finish #3#97, while statistical models projected an 80.4% probability of Top 4 and 98.4% for Top 8 #47#52.
The narrative shifted significantly following key injuries to players like Mitchell Barnett season-ending and later Luke Metcalf, which intensified concerns about depth and performance sustainability #8#147#170. Critical posts debated the team's resilience, with some arguing replacements like Dylan Walker and Taine Tuaupiki could maintain competitiveness #29#177, while others warned that further injuries could jeopardize their ladder position #94#163.
Ladder predictions evolved throughout the thread, initially favoring a Top 2 push but later acknowledging challenges after losses to Penrith and Brisbane #132#154. The Raiders were frequently cited as minor premiership favorites due to their soft draw and bye advantages #64#135. By the later stages, the focus pivoted to securing any finals berth, with users noting that even 2 more wins should suffice for Top 8 qualification given the congested lower half of the ladder #203351#213. Noteworthy analyses included breakdowns of opposing teams’ run-home difficulty #66#139 and reflections on the psychological impact of late-season slumps #186#205.

🏷️ Tags:

Finals Qualification, Injury Impact, Ladder Predictions

📊 Data Source: Based on ALL posts in thread (total: 224 posts) | ⏱️ Total Generation Time: 19s
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If we lose v Dogs and Sharks win we drop to 6th... be fighting for a finals spot ... not confident anymore, injuries have killed us....

In looking at the numbers it will take something catastrophic to miss the 8.

We are 3 wins above Roosters & Manly.

Roosters play Dolphins, Bulldogs, Eels, Storm & Rabbitohs and can finish on a maximum of 34 points if they win all of them.
  • They need to win 3 of 5 to equal our points tally.
  • If we win one more game they would need to win 4 of 5 to finish above us.
  • This suggests we are likely to finish above Roosters
Manly play Tigers, Dolphins, Dragons & Warriors
  • They need to win 3 of 4 to equal our points tally
  • The spanner is they play us last round so there is the possibility that we are playing them for 8th spot
  • If we win one more game, they would need to win all 4 to finish above us
  • This also suggest we are likely to finish above Manly

TL:DR - 2 wins and we are definitely in I reckon
 
i think dragons beating the sharks is actually good for us. It is a must win for us though, put a line through us for finals footy if we fail to win
 
We can stay 5th with no more wins.

Just requires the teams directly below us to have similar shithouse finishes to the season. With Broncos and Dolphins similar injury crises to us and Sharks capable of suddenly just not playing good, not totally out of the realms of possibility either 😅

Obviously not an ideal platform for confidence in finals, but it is what it is hah!
 
This situation isn't quite as crushing as previous fade outs (although up there for all time precarious).

But still sad given the position we were in.
Context helps.

Given this is the second season Webster has lifted this lot comfortably into the top four I see the big picture for what it is, very positive.

I don't get why, after so many horror injury seasons, so many around here cannot see the bigger picture.

The Warriors are in stasis, waiting for that season where they don't have a ridiculous amount of important outs from their line up.

Hopefully our owner is fully across the realities of why we are where we are now, I am sure he is, he seems to understand Rugby League...(background in a thing doesn't mean you get it).
 
Context helps.

Given this is the second season Webster has lifted this lot comfortably into the top four I see the big picture for what it is, very positive.

I don't get why, after so many horror injury seasons, so many around here cannot see the bigger picture.

The Warriors are in stasis, waiting for that season where they don't have a ridiculous amount of important outs from their line up.

Hopefully our owner is fully across the realities of why we are where we are now, I am sure he is, he seems to understand Rugby League...(background in a thing doesn't mean you get it).
Yeah 100%. I get people are disappointed where have dropped out of the 4 and clinging onto a top 8 spot, but you have to look at the full picture with the context you mention.

It’s not about just looking at our current situation with rose tinted glasses cause that would be being delusional, but if we step back and see the season for so far for what it is, it is still very positive.
 
Yeah 100%. I get people are disappointed where have dropped out of the 4 and clinging onto a top 8 spot, but you have to look at the full picture with the context you mention.

It’s not about just looking at our current situation with rose tinted glasses cause that would be being delusional, but if we step back and see the season for so far for what it is, it is still very positive.
Top 8 is a successful season, tbh we were top 4 since round 7 even that is a successful season if we miss out, something we have to build off.
 
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