Do you know when The government is changing the benefit system, the one about being more rigorous with under 25.More proof Labours ‘being kind’ actually hurt those it was wanting to help. Failed idiology - hand up not a handout. The worst part is Labour weren’t transparent and hid the data:
Modelling obtained by the Herald reveals that expected time on Jobseeker and other main benefits has risen sharply in the past four years, Alex Spence reports.
Government estimates of the time beneficiaries will spend on income support have risen sharply, with recipients of the main Jobseeker payment now expected to spend an average of 13 years on a benefit, according to modelling obtained by the Herald.
The estimated time that work-ready Jobseeker recipients will spend on income support until they reach retirement age has jumped by 23 per cent since 2019, amid a “worrying” slowdown of the benefits system that could strain government finances and trap thousands of people in poverty.
Long-term estimates for people on youth benefits and sole-parent support have increased even more starkly. Hundreds of disadvantaged teens are now expected to spend virtually their entire working lives on a main benefit, at a cost of nearly $1 million each in future payments, according to modelling by actuaries Taylor Fry for the Ministry of Social Development.
In total, Taylor Fry estimated that 626,000 New Zealanders who received a benefit in the last year will collectively spend another 6.43 million years on income support.
The Herald obtained the actuaries’ reports for the past five years, which have not been published until now, under the Official Information Act. They reveal that estimates of time on benefits were increasing before the Covid-19 pandemic – mainly because the rate at which people exit the system has slowed significantly – and are expected to worsen as unemployment rises.
Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston said: “The trends in these reports are worrying. They confirm the fears I raised in opposition that the previous Government took the foot off the accelerator when it came to shifting people off welfare and into work.”
The reports also said:
- The estimates are skewed by a growing minority of beneficiaries, who appear to be staying on welfare for extremely long durations. For example, Sole Parent Support clients are projected to spend an average of 17 working-age years on a benefit (up from 12.5 years in 2019), but the upper quartile of this group – about 18,700 people – are expected to spend more than 25 years in the system.
- The changes are impacting young people most severely, with about 2000 teens on the Youth Payment or Young Parent Payment now expected to spend an average of 24 working-age years on a benefit – a 46 per cent increase from the 2019 estimate. About 500 of them are expected to be on income support for more than 38.5 years, almost the rest of their working lives.
- In 2022, Taylor Fry estimated the longest-staying youth benefit recipients would each receive at least $962,000 in future payments – implying a total cost of more than $480 million for that cohort. (There was no comparable figure provided in the 2023 report.)
- Māori are also disproportionately impacted. In June 2022, Taylor Fry predicted Māori would make up nearly half of work-ready Jobseeker clients by the end of this decade, up from 35 per cent in 2010.
- Public housing is becoming “increasingly rigid”, with people moving out at historically low rates at the same time demand for places is soaring. Entry rates to the public housing register roughly doubled in the past decade, while exit rates nearly halved because of a lack of affordable private rentals for tenants to move to. “This has caused a system bottleneck,” Taylor Fry said.
Taylor Fry was first hired by MSD in 2011 when Sir John Key’s National Government was in power. For several years, Taylor Fry reports were published annually on MSD’s website and occasionally cited by ministers as evidence in support of welfare reforms.
After Labour took over in late 2017, the modelling continued to be produced annually but the reports were no longer published on MSD’s website and largely disappeared from public discussion. Carmel Sepuloni, the Labour minister responsible for MSD between October 2017 and November 2023, said she did not recall being briefed on the research by officials while she was in government.
Beneficiaries now likely to spend 13 years on welfare
Govt estimates of the expected time on Jobseeker have jumped 23 per cent in four years.www.nzherald.co.nz
Politics NZ Politics
- Thread starter wizard of Tauranga
- Start date
Rick O’Shay
Contributor
She's good. Has been there for over year teaching English. Gets around central america a bit and has remarked El Salvador is much safer than Guatemala or Nicaragua which probably isn't saying much.
What got me was the guy managed to build a 40000 pp prison in 7 months. Took a long time to put all those tents up I guess or maybe we should import some of his construction companies?
Did he same money by not putting locks on the cell doors?
Bay39er
Contributor
Have you ever spoken to a person on Jobseeker?More proof Labours ‘being kind’ actually hurt those it was wanting to help. Failed idiology - hand up not a handout. The worst part is Labour weren’t transparent and hid the data:
Modelling obtained by the Herald reveals that expected time on Jobseeker and other main benefits has risen sharply in the past four years, Alex Spence reports.
Government estimates of the time beneficiaries will spend on income support have risen sharply, with recipients of the main Jobseeker payment now expected to spend an average of 13 years on a benefit, according to modelling obtained by the Herald.
The estimated time that work-ready Jobseeker recipients will spend on income support until they reach retirement age has jumped by 23 per cent since 2019, amid a “worrying” slowdown of the benefits system that could strain government finances and trap thousands of people in poverty.
Long-term estimates for people on youth benefits and sole-parent support have increased even more starkly. Hundreds of disadvantaged teens are now expected to spend virtually their entire working lives on a main benefit, at a cost of nearly $1 million each in future payments, according to modelling by actuaries Taylor Fry for the Ministry of Social Development.
In total, Taylor Fry estimated that 626,000 New Zealanders who received a benefit in the last year will collectively spend another 6.43 million years on income support.
The Herald obtained the actuaries’ reports for the past five years, which have not been published until now, under the Official Information Act. They reveal that estimates of time on benefits were increasing before the Covid-19 pandemic – mainly because the rate at which people exit the system has slowed significantly – and are expected to worsen as unemployment rises.
Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston said: “The trends in these reports are worrying. They confirm the fears I raised in opposition that the previous Government took the foot off the accelerator when it came to shifting people off welfare and into work.”
The reports also said:
- The estimates are skewed by a growing minority of beneficiaries, who appear to be staying on welfare for extremely long durations. For example, Sole Parent Support clients are projected to spend an average of 17 working-age years on a benefit (up from 12.5 years in 2019), but the upper quartile of this group – about 18,700 people – are expected to spend more than 25 years in the system.
- The changes are impacting young people most severely, with about 2000 teens on the Youth Payment or Young Parent Payment now expected to spend an average of 24 working-age years on a benefit – a 46 per cent increase from the 2019 estimate. About 500 of them are expected to be on income support for more than 38.5 years, almost the rest of their working lives.
- In 2022, Taylor Fry estimated the longest-staying youth benefit recipients would each receive at least $962,000 in future payments – implying a total cost of more than $480 million for that cohort. (There was no comparable figure provided in the 2023 report.)
- Māori are also disproportionately impacted. In June 2022, Taylor Fry predicted Māori would make up nearly half of work-ready Jobseeker clients by the end of this decade, up from 35 per cent in 2010.
- Public housing is becoming “increasingly rigid”, with people moving out at historically low rates at the same time demand for places is soaring. Entry rates to the public housing register roughly doubled in the past decade, while exit rates nearly halved because of a lack of affordable private rentals for tenants to move to. “This has caused a system bottleneck,” Taylor Fry said.
Taylor Fry was first hired by MSD in 2011 when Sir John Key’s National Government was in power. For several years, Taylor Fry reports were published annually on MSD’s website and occasionally cited by ministers as evidence in support of welfare reforms.
After Labour took over in late 2017, the modelling continued to be produced annually but the reports were no longer published on MSD’s website and largely disappeared from public discussion. Carmel Sepuloni, the Labour minister responsible for MSD between October 2017 and November 2023, said she did not recall being briefed on the research by officials while she was in government.
Beneficiaries now likely to spend 13 years on welfare
Govt estimates of the expected time on Jobseeker have jumped 23 per cent in four years.
My nephew was on JS through the latter part of last year, around the election time
He is a very right wing supporter and his circle of friends kept poking the stick at him with comments such as "wait until the Nats are in and you'll find out that life isn't going to be so easy"
He explained to me the process he had encountered:
Interviews were set up
He received reminders the day before the interview
He received follow-up calls after the interview to see how it went
If he failed to attend an interview he would lose his benefit
He was able to tell his friends that he couldn't see anything that the new Govt could do that would give the process more integrity.
Rick O’Shay
Contributor
Don't need locks when there's 4kv running through the doorDid he same money by not putting locks on the cell doors?
- Thread starter
- #5,886
The article says the average person on JS is now expected to spend 13 years in the benefit. I would hope your nephew is not going to be one of those. My uncle was on it for decades. Once you’ve been in it a while they seem to give up you.
My solutions - education, goals, ambition, harsh on beneficiaries, barely enough money to subsist, crackdown on crime and gangs, invest in mental health. Honestly anyone could get a job at McDonalds this afternoon if they have the right attitude.
Of more concern: ‘Māori would make up nearly half of work-ready Jobseeker clients by the end of this decade, up from 35 per cent in 2010.’ I could propose solutions but Maori want by Maori; for Maori. So it’s on the Maori posters here - what’s the solution to this? Why being pro Maori culture, Te Reo, kohonga reo, decades of treaty settlements, etc, have Maori gone backwards?
Welfare dependancy helps nobody. Labour - the pro Maori party has condemned to many Maori to a life of benefit with corresponding financial, health, social and emotional suffering.
If the average jobseeker or unemployed spends 13 years like that, they are kaput. What a total waste of human beings.
I was going to reply to this factless, baseless pile of rubbish, but why bother.
But did anyway
Worried2Death
Contributor
Do you think this 13 years on jobseekers report is dodgy? Wonder how many are on it for that long.
What are the Government going to sell off in your opinion?
My god. Talk about regurgitating failed policies.
Either cut off all funding and eliminate the lowest from the gene pool over time. Or fully fund beneficiaries lifestyle.
Half assing about, increasing total welfare numbers, while decreasing state support will simply hasten the decline. Crime and the prison population will explode, driving up costs.
Worried2Death
Contributor
So what are we talking, eugenics, or just not paying for welfare babies?
Rizzah
Contributor
They are already talking more PPP for roading infrastructure. PPP are only good for the private stakeholder.
Also water infrastructure. I think that is why ACT is attacking the treaty. The ToW currently stands in the way of privatisation of water.
So not selling anything. Good to know.
man, the conclusions people are jumping to with this new government without even the slightest acknowledgment of the complete fucking dumpster fire the previous government got us into is wild!
there’s a mess that needs tidying.
will it get tidied? who knows but it couldn’t possibly get any worse.
the prime minister has said national WILL NOT back seymour’s stupid thing and everyone’s still up in arms about setting maori back generations.
and again just to be clear; i dont vote. i find both sides and all politicians to be liars and sociopaths at a minimum.
some people might have to just accept their party lost the election and get on with their lives.
there’s a mess that needs tidying.
will it get tidied? who knows but it couldn’t possibly get any worse.
the prime minister has said national WILL NOT back seymour’s stupid thing and everyone’s still up in arms about setting maori back generations.
and again just to be clear; i dont vote. i find both sides and all politicians to be liars and sociopaths at a minimum.
some people might have to just accept their party lost the election and get on with their lives.
Last edited:
Please don't tell me the PPP for roading is with --- Fulton Hogan?
There are or should be benefits for both parties.
To be fair, the regional fuel taxes were put into place by Labour, and justified at the time with "we need this money to build all this stuff".
The building of new stuff never happened, so the justification for the fuel tax no longer exists
Hopefully the lack of a safety net of central government incentivises councils to run more efficiently. And if they need more money from ratepayers, to ask for more money from them directly so they can be more accountable for it.
Wishful thinking but it makes accountabilities clearer
You mean someone who can go a hour without weed or a drink! I know a lot who have mental issues who will never work, they are to far gone! If I didn't give up the drink I would be one of them!
