NRL NRL Expansion

[Milking!]

Here are the Other Cities with Census 2023 population counts

Dunedin 135 000 - big enough to host a game
Queenstown - 47,808 - not big enough to host a game
Nelson - 52,584 - not big enough to host a game
Invercargill - 57,900 - not big enough to host a game

How many games is each CHCH bid promising to Dunedin and the other South Island Cities.

If they hit 20 teams, and go with a straight play-each-team-once format, that’s only 10 games - one in Dunners, maybe one in a smaller boutique SI location that they move about, potentially one in the NI (imagine alternating between Waikato and Wellington) - only leaves 7-8 Christchurch games.

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

Here are the Other Cities with Census 2023 population counts

Dunedin 135 000 - big enough to host a game
Queenstown - 47,808 - not big enough to host a game
Nelson - 52,584 - not big enough to host a game
Invercargill - 57,900 - not big enough to host a game

How many games is each CHCH bid promising to Dunedin and the other South Island Cities.

Obviously Dunedin will get games.

I’d go Dunedin 2 years and Nelson 1 year.
Why can’t Nelson host a game every 3 years. That way it doesn’t get stagnant.

Are Wellington fans going to stop being fans because the Warriors aren’t going there for a few years? I doubt it.

They can always take preseason games around to other towns. (Like the Warriors do)

People will travel. I have close friends in Taupo that go up to watch the Warriors at least once or twice a year. They’re going up there specifically for the game btw.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Might be a long shot oh a Wahs forum, but can anyone shed some light on what the obsession with making the ‘Bears’ happen is? I get they’re an original club, but no one keeps banging on about bringing back the Glebe Dirty Reds.
Sydney doesn’t need another team, so they somehow glom on to a new one in Perth? I just don’t get why you wouldn’t want a team with a new identity? The only pluses seem to be the hope the old fanbase gets into a team that’s in another state by virtue of being ‘bears’ and you don’t need to bankroll organising a new logo/motto for a team.

The Bears are marketing it as reintroducing 220,000 fans to league (the North Sydney Bears catchment). That’s around the Knights/ Canberra/ Cowboys population base just in North Sydney.

I don’t know how many follow other Sydney teams but there was a falling out with Manly.

For the NRL it’s killing 2 birds. Gain 3m potential Perth followers and cover the Northern part of Sydney which has no real representation currently. Plus the pathways. Personally can’t see it working well though. Just not a natural fit.

 

[Riz]

Yes. I don't think the numbers add up for the South Island. Auckland has nearly 2 million people. Christchurch 450 000. I think Vlandys will take note. It is not the initial years they will be worried about. It will be after 7-8 years and the team isn't winning maybe will people show up? I always thought it should be a joint Wellington / CHCH bid. Even if CHCH gets most of the games.

Hahaha... when the SI team isn't winning! What a ridiculous thought... we are winners down here, that's what we do. Mark my words, the SI side will win a premiership before the Warriors do.

 

[Matiunz]

Might be a long shot oh a Wahs forum, but can anyone shed some light on what the obsession with making the ‘Bears’ happen is? I get they’re an original club, but no one keeps banging on about bringing back the Glebe Dirty Reds.
Sydney doesn’t need another team, so they somehow glom on to a new one in Perth? I just don’t get why you wouldn’t want a team with a new identity? The only pluses seem to be the hope the old fanbase gets into a team that’s in another state by virtue of being ‘bears’ and you don’t need to bankroll organising a new logo/motto for a team.

Norths have been trying to get back in since they were booted and have pretty much been willing to partner with anyone to make it happen.
Out of the teams that got booted they have been probably the most hard done by, they were ‘guaranteed’ survival if they relocated to the central coast- which they did, delay of the stadiums completion screwed them.
They then got screwed over by their merger partner (Manly) in the Northern Eagles JV after again doing what they were told to survive.
The whole of Northern Sydney doesn’t have a team which was a massive mistake the NRL made that they kinda need to correct without adding a team to Sydney. - Manly don’t really count as they only service a small pocket

 

[Matiunz]

Hahaha... when the SI team isn't winning! What a ridiculous thought... we are winners down here, that's what we do. Mark my words, the SI side will win a premiership before the Warriors do.

Think SI are hamstringing themselves by limiting it to the South Island. Yes they have some good rugby players but if that was all it took why haven’t the Warriors already leveraged it? Or the rest of the NRL? The local leagues are light years behind their Aus counterparts, yes there are South Island born players in the NRL but how many of them can credit their development to the SI?
Particularly at the start they will be heavily recruitment reliant and Christchurch will be a VERY tough sell (it’s the Aus equivalent of a country town) to non NZ heritage players. I’d love a second NZ team but it’s a CHCH team is a tough sell, yes PNG is riskier but the govt money underwrites it.

 

[Teets]

The local leagues are light years behind their Aus counterparts, yes there are South Island born players in the NRL but how many of them can credit their development to the SI?

Pretty confident the Canterbury Bulls and Sth Island Scorpions age grade teams would smoke the Western Australian equivalents.

As to why the Warriors have ignored Sth Island (and really the rest of NZ) talent for so long, I'd say just another one of their many management misteps over the years which they're only now starting to rectify with a proper pathway system.

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

Think SI are hamstringing themselves by limiting it to the South Island. Yes they have some good rugby players but if that was all it took why haven’t the Warriors already leveraged it? Or the rest of the NRL? The local leagues are light years behind their Aus counterparts, yes there are South Island born players in the NRL but how many of them can credit their development to the SI?
Particularly at the start they will be heavily recruitment reliant and Christchurch will be a VERY tough sell (it’s the Aus equivalent of a country town) to non NZ heritage players. I’d love a second NZ team but it’s a CHCH team is a tough sell, yes PNG is riskier but the govt money underwrites it.

How would you explain how the Warriors missed out on the best players in the North Island? Let alone the South Island. If you listed out the 10 best Kiwi players of the last 15 years. How many of them are from Auckland? 2 or 3 maybe 4?

All those points you raise about players are all worse in Perth. You do realise that right?
At least the South Island have those quality Rugby players. What has Perth got?
Name one Wallaby or NRL player from Perth. Just one…….. Even just born there?

When the Melbourne Rebels collapsed none of their Wallabies wanted to go to Perth.

I’ll admit big sponsorship money is a concern for Christchurch IMO. And Perth is obviously a bigger city.

I believe Christchurch is bigger than Townsville and Newcastle and about the same as Canberra. And will have 1.2 million South Islanders to draw from.

Christchurch/SI will produce more players in 10 years than Perth and Melbourne will in 30 years COMBINED.
LOL Melbourne have almost been around for 30 years.

 

[Matiunz]

Pretty confident the Canterbury Bulls and Sth Island Scorpions age grade teams would smoke the Western Australian equivalents.

As to why the Warriors have ignored Sth Island (and really the rest of NZ) talent for so long, I'd say just another one of their many management misteps over the years which they're only now starting to rectify with a proper pathway system.

Wouldn’t necessarily take that for granted, WA are the next strongest state behind NSW/QLD and have had teams in SG ball until covid.
Plus of course their link with Norths will give them access to pathways up to nsw cup level.

 

[Matiunz]

How would you explain how the Warriors missed out on the best players in the North Island? Let alone the South Island. If you listed out the 10 best Kiwi players of the last 15 years. How many of them are from Auckland? 2 or 3 maybe 4?

All those points you raise about players are all worse in Perth. You do realise that right?
At least the South Island have those quality Rugby players. What has Perth got?
Name one Wallaby or NRL player from Perth. Just one…….. Even just born there?

When the Melbourne Rebels collapsed none of their Wallabies wanted to go to Perth.

I’ll admit big sponsorship money is a concern for Christchurch IMO. And Perth is obviously a bigger city.

I believe Christchurch is bigger than Townsville and Newcastle and about the same as Canberra. And will have 1.2 million South Islanders to draw from.

Christchurch/SI will produce more players in 10 years than Perth and Melbourne will in 30 years COMBINED.
LOL Melbourne have almost been around for 30 years.

The Warriors have an image problem in terms of development, many prefer to develop in Aus rather than our systems- a struggle SI will also face. You might get a chunk of kiwis show benefit of the doubt and sign for the inaugural team but if results don’t quickly come they’ll have it worse than Auckland.

As for NRL players born in WA? Mightve heard of Kalyn Ponga? Also have the immediate advantage of Norths feeder systems.

Money is a big risk, they’d only be ahead of Townsville.

CHCH would only be bigger than Townsville and maybe Canberra, both Canberra and Newcastle have the advantage of satellite towns that quickly bump up the population, central coast and Hunter regions both over a million people.

Not saying it can’t work but stubbornly pushing ahead as CHCH by another name isn’t within their best interests.

 

[Teets]

Wouldn’t necessarily take that for granted, WA are the next strongest state behind NSW/QLD and have had teams in SG ball until covid.
Plus of course their link with Norths will give them access to pathways up to nsw cup level.

Didn't that SG ball team go winless for years? They were lucky to hold teams under 50 most weeks.

Right now Auckland is easily the 3rd strongest RL region behind QLD/NSW in Australasia and the Sth Island jr teams go toe to toe with them these days.

Also nothing stopping a Sth Island bid from affiliating with one of these Q Cup outfits up against it without a NRL affiliate currently.

 

[WA Warrior]

How would you explain how the Warriors missed out on the best players in the North Island? Let alone the South Island. If you listed out the 10 best Kiwi players of the last 15 years. How many of them are from Auckland? 2 or 3 maybe 4?

All those points you raise about players are all worse in Perth. You do realise that right?
At least the South Island have those quality Rugby players. What has Perth got?
Name one Wallaby or NRL player from Perth. Just one…….. Even just born there?

When the Melbourne Rebels collapsed none of their Wallabies wanted to go to Perth.

I’ll admit big sponsorship money is a concern for Christchurch IMO. And Perth is obviously a bigger city.

I believe Christchurch is bigger than Townsville and Newcastle and about the same as Canberra. And will have 1.2 million South Islanders to draw from.

Christchurch/SI will produce more players in 10 years than Perth and Melbourne will in 30 years COMBINED.
LOL Melbourne have almost been around for 30 years.

Just going to point out I’m wildly bias towards Perth haha.

But yeah, Sam McKendry, Royce Hunt, Kalyn Ponga, Curtis Rona all born or spent time in WA

Granted not born here the Force have been able to recruit players like David Pocock, James O’Connor, Drew Mitchell, Nathan Sharpe etc in their prime so it’s more the team not the place imo.
Force recruited 2 Rebels player as-well FYI.

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

The Warriors have an image problem in terms of development, many prefer to develop in Aus rather than our systems- a struggle SI will also face. You might get a chunk of kiwis show benefit of the doubt and sign for the inaugural team but if results don’t quickly come they’ll have it worse than Auckland.

As for NRL players born in WA? Mightve heard of Kalyn Ponga? Also have the immediate advantage of Norths feeder systems.

Money is a big risk, they’d only be ahead of Townsville.

CHCH would only be bigger than Townsville and maybe Canberra, both Canberra and Newcastle have the advantage of satellite towns that quickly bump up the population, central coast and Hunter regions both over a million people.

Not saying it can’t work but stubbornly pushing ahead as CHCH by another name isn’t within their best interests.

Kayln Ponga? Ok, fair enough. You’ll note I actually said Perth, not some hick town 1600km away. Auckland is closer to Dunedin btw. (Christchurch is closer to Sydney than Perth btw)

You assess that players will be reluctant to go to Christchurch……..
I’m sorry, what’s pulling players to Perth exactly?
What makes you think that a whole bunch of kids from North Sydney will up and move to Perth but other Kiwis won’t move to Christchurch?
They already do for Rugby? Yes?

If you’re including the satellite towns. Canterbury has a population of almost 700k so…… what’s the problem? That’s not even including Dunedin, Nelson and Invercargill.

The money? Yeah I’ll admit, I have no clue where the sponsorships will come from. Maybe our South Island members can be more insightful.

 

[WA Warrior]

I do think it would have benefited the SI team to go in with Newton Jets or similar.
Bang have some sort of pathways strait away.
But yeah I’m not sold on tapping to these union players is going to be so easy imo.
A squad of 30 is needed, all the new franchises are really going to struggle for depth.

 

[Matiunz]

Kayln Ponga? Ok, fair enough. You’ll note I actually said Perth, not some hick town 1600km away. Auckland is closer to Dunedin btw. (Christchurch is closer to Sydney than Perth btw)

You assess that players will be reluctant to go to Christchurch……..
I’m sorry, what’s pulling players to Perth exactly?
What makes you think that a whole bunch of kids from North Sydney will up and move to Perth but other Kiwis won’t move to Christchurch?
They already do for Rugby? Yes?

If you’re including the satellite towns. Canterbury has a population of almost 700k so…… what’s the problem? That’s not even including Dunedin, Nelson and Invercargill.

The money? Yeah I’ll admit, I have no clue where the sponsorships will come from. Maybe our South Island members can be more insightful.

Yes port hedland isn’t Perth but if you’re going to include all of SI it’s reasonable to include WA.
Perths a nice destination(albeit isolated) with 2.1m that’s more appealing to many over essentially a glorified town comparatively(this is how most Australians see CHCH- if they’ve even heard of it) climate and house affordability are certainly in the plus column, the Warriors struggle to recruit Aus players, CHCH is a tougher sell.
Could ask the same question- what’s the appeal of moving to CHCH?

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

Just going to point out I’m wildly bias towards Perth haha.

But yeah, Sam McKendry, Royce Hunt, Kalyn Ponga, Curtis Rona all born or spent time in WA

Granted not born here the Force have been able to recruit players like David Pocock, James O’Connor, Drew Mitchell, Nathan Sharpe etc in their prime so it’s more the team not the place imo.
Force recruited 2 Rebels player as-well FYI.

Fair enough brother, your handle kinda gives it away.

McKendry and Ponga were born in WA, Fair.
You’ll note I actually said Perth.

Sharpe and Mitchell went there in their primes. Absolutely. But they weren’t born or developed there.
And Pocock and O’Conner were excellent recruits. But neither were born there and both left when they hit their primes.

You’ll also note I said no Wallabies went from the Rebels to the Force.
Fairs fair, Proctor was an All Black. Lol

 

[WA Warrior]

Fair enough brother, your handle kinda gives it away.

McKendry and Ponga were born in WA, Fair.
You’ll note I actually said Perth.

Sharpe and Mitchell went there in their primes. Absolutely. But they weren’t born or developed there.
And Pocock and O’Conner were excellent recruits. But neither were born there and both left when they hit their primes.

You’ll also note I said no Wallabies went from the Rebels to the Force.
Fairs fair, Proctor was an All Black. Lol

Apologies, my bad bro you’re right, no Wallabies

 

[Tohu’s_Knees]

Yes port hedland isn’t Perth but if you’re going to include all of SI it’s reasonable to include WA.
Perths a nice destination(albeit isolated) with 2.1m that’s more appealing to many over essentially a glorified town comparatively(this is how most Australians see CHCH- if they’ve even heard of it) climate and house affordability are certainly in the plus column, the Warriors struggle to recruit Aus players, CHCH is a tougher sell.
Could ask the same question- what’s the appeal of moving to CHCH?

The Christchurch team will likely rely heavily on developing their own players. Which will take time. But when they do……. Goddamn.

Don’t you think with an extra team, more pairs of eyes around NZ that Kiwi talent won’t go to Christchurch as opposed to Australia? They do for rugby. What really the difference. With a bit of time. But at least they have that option. They’ll probably only get Australian journeymen.

What actually has Perth got? It’s a nice city.
(I’ve been there once, genuinely enjoyed it)
But there’s no player base, no player roots, no nothing. A paycheque…… That’s it.

They’ll get journeyman mostly, and pick up an elite talent here and there at an inflated salary. No developed players though, so pretty much all their players will be imported with slightly higher salaries.

Hell with the tax exemptions PNG might even find it easier to recruit. (Probably not elite talent)

 

[Milking!]

My take is that it’s shaping as NZ vs QLD for the 20th slot, which would suit the NRL to roll out sooner than later if PNG/Perth get up and running.
Think the Wahs, Cows, Titans and Dolphins have showed a blueprint of what does and doesn’t works when it comes to being a successful expansion franchise - so for any bid, can they replicate the good stuff and avoid the bad?
Big investment in juniors and pathways, aligned board and management, quality infrastructure, the marketing savvy to engage and retain a fanbase, the capability to recruit elite operators in coaching, playing and support staff, and operating in an area where you can get a solid fanbase/corporate consistently attending home games (and I’m sure a lot more …)
IF an NZ team could deliver that over a sustained period of time (and fork out the licence fee), I’d think the NRL would push for that over another QLD team - less saturation of the qld market, a team more than happy to play in the early arvo OZ team slot, baked-in rivalry with the Wahs, would likely become every Kiwi league fans fav or second fav team, more development opportunity for Kiwi talent (which is not just good for the Kiwis, but tempting for Oz teams … Perth and PNG will take a lot of players off the board, and Kiwis can’t play Origin).

 

[Milking!]

The Christchurch team will likely rely heavily on developing their own players. Which will take time. But when they do……. Goddamn.

Don’t you think with an extra team, more pairs of eyes around NZ that Kiwi talent won’t go to Christchurch as opposed to Australia? They do for rugby. What really the difference. With a bit of time. But at least they have that option. They’ll probably only get Australian journeymen.

What actually has Perth got? It’s a nice city.
(I’ve been there once, genuinely enjoyed it)
But there’s no player base, no player roots, no nothing. A paycheque…… That’s it.

They’ll get journeyman mostly, and pick up an elite talent here and there at an inflated salary. No developed players though, so pretty much all their players will be imported with slightly higher salaries.

Hell with the tax exemptions PNG might even find it easier to recruit. (Probably not elite talent)

I wonder if the PNG tax exemption will be a major game changer for them? If you’re 27-28 and looking for the last big contract, all of a sudden a contract from PNG shows up that’s not only paying 100-150k more per year, but you also don’t pay tax on it … that’s another what 50k? All of a sudden a couple years in a gated community worth it to end up 5-600k better off long term?
Not sure it’ll get the marquee talent, but that next tier could find it very appealing.