Politics 🗳️ NZ Politics

[miket12]

The ‘path of least regrets’ was a term used to basically say your not going to take any risk, make judgement decision and use your skill and experience to navigate whats before you but instead just take the safest no risk, blunt options.

Very conservative, rear facing, data based solution that missed what was happening in real time.

Hindsight was shown it to be a mistake as other countries have been more proactive and ahead of the curve.

Was this a similar economic response to the no risk lockdown ones?

You'd have thought, that when they saw other central banks weren't going so big, so quickly in terms of rates increases that they would have slowed the increases down but instead they kept blindly following the "data" without considering the consequences. And GrantR was there championing the increases because it would finally bring the rapid increases in house values down. Yet, other countries which also had experienced huge jumps in property values also saw them fall by orchestrating a "soft landing". Too much focus on the housing market and not enough consideration about the impact of the wider economy in my opinion.

 

[Inruin]

You'd have thought, that when they saw other central banks weren't going so big, so quickly in terms of rates increases that they would have slowed the increases down but instead they kept blindly following the "data" without considering the consequences. And GrantR was there championing the increases because it would finally bring the rapid increases in house values down. Yet, other countries which also had experienced huge jumps in property values also saw them fall by orchestrating a "soft landing". Too much focus on the housing market and not enough consideration about the impact of the wider economy in my opinion.

Without trying to spark things up do you think that the dual mandate for the Reserve Bank was the right thing or do you think its right to return it to the single price stability focus? I also wonder if our spending had been a bit more targeted and measured whether we would have had such a big jump.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

You'd have thought, that when they saw other central banks weren't going so big, so quickly in terms of rates increases that they would have slowed the increases down but instead they kept blindly following the "data" without considering the consequences. And GrantR was there championing the increases because it would finally bring the rapid increases in house values down. Yet, other countries which also had experienced huge jumps in property values also saw them fall by orchestrating a "soft landing". Too much focus on the housing market and not enough consideration about the impact of the wider economy in my opinion.

I hope the covid enquiry is not political and gives us a plan for future pandemics.

1 - I actually don’t think politicians are the best placed to manage the response - it’s to specialised, not what we vote them in to deal with and outside their skill set.

2 - I don’t think health officials are best placed to mange it either. They should be part of the solution but only 1 part of a broad range of considerations.

I think the collateral damage to the economy, students not attending school (still), mental health issues, sectors like tourism still below precovid levels, the inflation bubble, etc, point to a huge need to preplan how we will respond and what we prioritise next time.

Maybe a specialist civil defence type agency that prepares and specialised in pandemics to lead the response?

So much of what we’re still seeing today is due to our covid response.

 

[miket12]

Without trying to spark things up do you think that the dual mandate for the Reserve Bank was the right thing or do you think its right to return it to the single price stability focus? I also wonder if our spending had been a bit more targeted and measured whether we would have had such a big jump.

As I see it, the problem with the employment side of the dual mandate is that there wasn't a full definition of what was expected in achieving maximum employment or even what that figure should be. Both Treasury and the RB both said that the employment objective should be subordinate to the achieving price stability. Personally, instead of changing the Act to remove the dual mandate, the "weighting" of each side should have been better defined through a MPC Remit issued by the Minister. Removing it totally, although an election promise by both National and ACT, was, IMO, a step too far.

 

[Tragic]

I hope the covid enquiry is not political and gives us a plan for future pandemics.

1 - I actually don’t think politicians are the best placed to manage the response - it’s to specialised, not what we vote them in to deal with and outside their skill set.

2 - I don’t think health officials are best placed to mange it either. They should be part of the solution but only 1 part of a broad range of considerations.

I think the collateral damage to the economy, students not attending school (still), mental health issues, sectors like tourism still below precovid levels, the inflation bubble, etc, point to a huge need to preplan how we will respond and what we prioritise next time.

Maybe a specialist civil defence type agency that prepares and specialised in pandemics to lead the response?

So much of what we’re still seeing today is due to our covid response.

The problem is you can't know if you got it right until after. We look back now and most would say we locked down too long, but if it had turned out that mortality was higher that might have been the right thing to do. Or maybe not?

And do we really need an expensive enquiry to tell us what happened?

 

[miket12]

The problem is you can't know if you got it right until after. We look back now and most would say we locked down too long, but if it had turned out that mortality was higher that might have been the right thing to do. Or maybe not?

And do we really need an expensive enquiry to tell us what happened?

Personally, I think we need an inquiry not to proportion any "blame" but to decide what worked and what didn't work and try and prepare for the next one.

 

[Noitall]

Stuff

www.stuff.co.nz

Slowly getting to the goal of q and a. TVNZ obviously trying to prioritise that show at the expense of breakfast and seven sharp

 

[Lord Gnome of Waiheke]

I am off to Australia on Monday.

Fuck you Chris Luxon and all who voted for this shit show.

 

[Inruin]

I am off to Australia on Monday.

Fuck you Chris Luxon and all who voted for this shit show.

On Monday the intelligence level of both countries will go up

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

I am off to Australia on Monday.

Fuck you Chris Luxon and all who voted for this shit show.

Could you take a few others with you?

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

I am off to Australia on Monday.

Fuck you Chris Luxon and all who voted for this shit show.

Australia as a country is considerably more conservative than NZ.

Their Labour (Labor) has an open left and right wing within it.

Yes, they are pro union, etc. But they also pursue very liberal economic and social policies compared with NZ.

Best of both worlds really but a hard lefty will find some of Labor’s policies more like Nationals than NZ’s left.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

New govt, tough on crime attitude, replace the police commissioner, scrap policing by consent, cutting ineffective investment in govt departments and social services.

AND YOUTH CRIMES GOING DOWN

The youth offending number at the end of July are 7.8% below the peak in November last year.

The number of repeat serious youth offenders is dropping. No-one knows why

The number of serious offenders was rising for more than three years, but is now falling

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[Noitall]

New govt, tough on crime attitude, replace the police commissioner, scrap policing by consent, cutting ineffective investment in govt departments and social services.

AND YOUTH CRIMES GOING DOWN

The youth offending number at the end of July are 7.8% below the peak in November last year.

View attachment 9966

The number of repeat serious youth offenders is dropping. No-one knows why

The number of serious offenders was rising for more than three years, but is now falling

www.nzherald.co.nz

Great to see, but what would be the cause of a rise in violent crime? In September it was reported that 30,000 more people had experienced a violent crime against them compared to 2 years before

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

Great to see, but what would be the cause of a rise in violent crime? In September it was reported that 30,000 more people had experienced a violent crime against them compared to 2 years before

Would need to see the stats but it was over winter yourh crime started going down so hopefully overall crime follows as well?

Those violent stats were over a ‘2 year before’ period so will take a while to flow through.

Personally ‘feel’ crimes getting better. Haven’t witnessed the police hunting a stabber lately like peak youth crime

 

[Noitall]

Would need to see the stats but it was over winter yourh crime started going down so hopefully overall crime follows as well?


Personally ‘feel’ crimes getting better. Haven’t witnessed the police hunting a stabber lately like peak youth crime

What the stats say: Murder convictions up 77%, meth dominating drug landscape

New justice statistics show significant rises in the number of convictions for murder, manslaughter and driving causing death - though population increases are playing a part.

www.rnz.co.nz

To add to that violent crime stat, most concerning was that murder on the public transport system in recent times. Certainly haven’t seen that sort of incident in some time, that could lead to a big loss of confidence to use the system. Two that stood out to me in the article I posted was murder rates up 77% on the year before and sexual natured crime up 70% on those 16 and under

 

[Inruin]

What the stats say: Murder convictions up 77%, meth dominating drug landscape

New justice statistics show significant rises in the number of convictions for murder, manslaughter and driving causing death - though population increases are playing a part.

www.rnz.co.nz

To add to that violent crime stat, most concerning was that murder on the public transport system in recent times. Certainly haven’t seen that sort of incident in some time, that could lead to a big loss of confidence to use the system. Two that stood out to me in the article I posted was murder rates up 77% on the year before and sexual natured crime up 70% on those 16 and under

Is there a correlation with a reduction in drug related charges and convictions, a switch to a health based approach, and an increasing proportion towards meth related ones?

Drug offences

There has been a gradual shift in the proportion of charges laid for drug offences over the past 10 years.

In 2014/15 cannabis made up the largest number of charges accounting for 47 percent of 14,521 charges while methamphetamine charges were responsible for just over a third.

By 2023, meth was behind more than 50 percent of the charges while cannabis had declined to 34 percent.

The trend was underpinned by the passing of the Misuse of Drugs Amendment Act in 2019 - in which a health-based approach allowed police discretion for the prosecution of personal drug use.

The act reinforced the police focus on those who profit from drug dealing as opposed to individual users.

Police laid just over 1400 fewer charges for drugs offences in 2023/24 compared to 2014/15.

The 13,112 charges for 2023/24 are nearly nine percent less than the average number of charges laid each year for the past 10 years and more than 3000 less than a peak in charges peaked in 2017.

This year's 3556 convictions stemming from drug-related charges is a nearly 24 percent reduction on the number of convictions gained in 2014/15 and more than 750 less than the average number of convictions gained each year for the past 10 years.

 

[wizard of Tauranga]

What the stats say: Murder convictions up 77%, meth dominating drug landscape

New justice statistics show significant rises in the number of convictions for murder, manslaughter and driving causing death - though population increases are playing a part.

www.rnz.co.nz

To add to that violent crime stat, most concerning was that murder on the public transport system in recent times. Certainly haven’t seen that sort of incident in some time, that could lead to a big loss of confidence to use the system. Two that stood out to me in the article I posted was murder rates up 77% on the year before and sexual natured crime up 70% on those 16 and under

That article is based on convictions so very rear looking, beside being for the 23-24 year.

Hopefully the bus stabbing is a one off crazy and not representitive of safety on public transport. At least we haven’t had any diary owners taken out lately, just trying to earn a living.

On the 70% increase in sexual assault victims under 16, what was the age of the offender? Context? Judging by my college daughters, there’s a lot of relationships younger between school kids.

 

[Noitall]

Is there a correlation with a reduction in drug related charges and convictions, a switch to a health vases approach, and an increasing proportion towards meth related ones?

Drug offences

There has been a gradual shift in the proportion of charges laid for drug offences over the past 10 years.

In 2014/15 cannabis made up the largest number of charges accounting for 47 percent of 14,521 charges while methamphetamine charges were responsible for just over a third.

By 2023, meth was behind more than 50 percent of the charges while cannabis had declined to 34 percent.

The trend was underpinned by the passing of the Misuse of Drugs Amendment Act in 2019 - in which a health-based approach allowed police discretion for the prosecution of personal drug use.

The act reinforced the police focus on those who profit from drug dealing as opposed to individual users.

Police laid just over 1400 fewer charges for drugs offences in 2023/24 compared to 2014/15.

The 13,112 charges for 2023/24 are nearly nine percent less than the average number of charges laid each year for the past 10 years and more than 3000 less than a peak in charges peaked in 2017.

This year's 3556 convictions stemming from drug-related charges is a nearly 24 percent reduction on the number of convictions gained in 2014/15 and more than 750 less than the average number of convictions gained each year for the past 10 years.

It’s interesting because the article talks about 50% of drug crimes being from meth, but in recent times I’ve thought the major busts have been cannabis operations set up by Thai being here illegally

 

[Inruin]

It’s interesting because the article talks about 50% of drug crimes being from meth, but in recent times I’ve thought the major busts have been cannabis operations set up by Thai being here illegally

I feel like the majority of large busts lately I have heard about are meth ones?

 

[MrFrankWhite]

Australia as a country is considerably more conservative than NZ.

Their Labour (Labor) has an open left and right wing within it.

Yes, they are pro union, etc. But they also pursue very liberal economic and social policies compared with NZ.

Best of both worlds really but a hard lefty will find some of Labor’s policies more like Nationals than NZ’s left.

Aus is about to lurch to the right. QLd just did