General Will we make the eight 2014?

Donal

Donal

I know, we always have the faith that we will, but just as a reality check, here's how it might play out over the remaining fixtures.
We take 4 points from the Knights (win both), 4 from the Sharks (win both), 2 from the Broncos (win one, lose one), 2 from the Panthers (win one, lose one), 2 from the Titans (win the one game), 2 from the Raiders (win the one game), and lose against Souths, Manly, and the Roosters (one game each). If we lose our one game to the Eels, we'd be on 26 (the way the points are distributed fairly evenly this year, that might squeak in, especially, as our points difference is now looking okay), and if we beat the Eels we'd be on 28, which I'd say on a not-too-awful points difference should see us safely in
 
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DavidMcKay1974

DavidMcKay1974

The 10 Round Stats Mark say No. We had 4 Wins 6 Losses. I showed this stat at the beginning of the season.

Every time we had 6 Win 4 Loss or More than 6 wins in our first 10 games we always made the Top 8, when we didn't we failed.

Sometimes stats are made to be broken.

I believe we can make the Top 8 this year, if games go our way. I've been using the NRL Ladder Predictor the last few weeks, and always have us making the Top 8.

We just need to keep improving. I think we can. Andrew McFadden has us heading in the right direction.

When was the last time we won ugly? When do we know how to win ugly?

Those are the questions.
 
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rugged

rugged

I know, we always have the faith that we will, but just as a reality check, here's how it might play out over the remaining fixtures.
We take 4 points from the Knights (win both), 4 from the Sharks (win both), 2 from the Broncos (win one, lose one), 2 from the Panthers (win one, lose one), 2 from the Titans (win the one game), 2 from the Raiders (win the one game), and lose against Souths, Manly, and the Roosters (one game each). If we lose our one game to the Eels, we'd be on 26 (the way the points are distributed fairly evenly this year, that might squeak in, especially, as our points difference is now looking okay), and if we beat the Eels we'd be on 28, which I'd say on a not-too-awful points difference should see us safely in
You haven't included points from the byes. So 26 becomes 30 which would be in the 8 pretty comfortably. If we got 32 then we would prob be 5th or 6th which would get us a home game for week one.
 
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Sup42

Sup42

You haven't included points from the byes. So 26 becomes 30 which would be in the 8 pretty comfortably. If we got 32 then we would prob be 5th or 6th which would get us a home game for week one.
Yep Bye points reshape that table.

It will be hard to make the eight if the teams above us win the games they 'should win' on paper the table has a more realistic shape to it now with the Tits dropping off , the Dragons well gone....Raiders etc.

The biggest threats to us making the eight is the rise of the Eels and the Tigers. We have to be better than them , they have a head start and are playing really well.

We could go for seven weeks of wins and still be bottom of top eight barrell chances......equally with the Origin creating upsets we could be threatening the top four a month from now....two points off that pace.

Out of it.

I'm not thinking top eight this year , I'm enjoying that we are a chance , but I think the McFaddens race is a handicap from the back of the field and expectations should be set there.

Keep playing well....top eight who cares from my end....I want a permanent change to this club....this is the first time in years I've gotten something out of our losses.

Substance....honorable losses....something to talk about with a straight face....glory be.
 
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Ranger

Ranger

Cut-off has been 28 for the last few seasons so I think we're close enough at the moment. Just keep winning is the easiest calculation.
 
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macker

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We're only 2 points away from the 8 right now. So if we keep playing hard and keep our for and against in our favor we make the 8 easy. There's some tough games coming up, but that's the same for every team, so we just need to relax and work harder.

Two of our main game breaker, Hurrell and Tomkins, had below standard games last night, so if those two can play 80 mins of quality we win that game by 20.

I say we are playing top 8 footy right now, but are cursed by our shit house start to the season. The only way we miss the 8 is if we go back to the old ways.
 
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phil.kingston

Cant tell now aye...even in 2012, round 18...we were around the 8, but ended up losing the next 8 and finished up closer to the bottom of the table
in 2013, with 3 round to go we were around the 8 and screwed up
In 2014, our start to the season has been just as poor as the previous years...it looks promising, but so did last year till it all came crashing down

Unless we are absolutely entrenched in the top 8, I cant say with any confidence that we'll make it
 
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Ever Hopeful

Ever Hopeful

Contributor
i'm predicting that it will come down the the last round against penrith

This is my thought too, and to make it more uncomfortable it is away. I see Penrith, NQ and the Broncs as the main competition. i expect the Eels, Tits and Broncs to start falling away now. The Panthers have had a favourable draw til now, and although they have been winning, they have not been dominant wins. I think we will make the 8 with NQ and Penrith. I am very interested to see what happens to the Storm from here.

I also expect the spoon to be hotly contested and there are a couple of interesting clashes at the end of the season to make this quite exciting.
 
Donal

Donal

Sorry folks, completely forgot the bye points, so if the games fall the way I think they might, we'd be well in the eight. So either I'm being overhopeful or we have a relatively easy run in from here (and maybe we do, with 2 each against the Knights and Sharks, and 1 against the Raiders). Another way of looking at it is, if 28 points is the cut-off, we need 18 more, or 14 after counting the 2 byes, which means winning 7 out of the last 14, and on current form and that fixture list you'd think we have a good chance
 
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Danpatmac

Guest
Sorry folks, completely forgot the bye points, so if the games fall the way I think they might, we'd be well in the eight. So either I'm being overhopeful or we have a relatively easy run in from here (and maybe we do, with 2 each against the Knights and Sharks, and 1 against the Raiders). Another way of looking at it is, if 28 points is the cut-off, we need 18 more, or 14 after counting the 2 byes, which means winning 7 out of the last 14, and on current form and that fixture list you'd think we have a good chance

haven't we already played the sharks this year?
we only have one more against them in rd22
 

warriors4eva

Shit if we miss the top 8 with the draw we got this year then that's mud !! We should be aiming for bloody top 4 !! So much more advantage with home games in the playoffs would be huge for us !

13 games left and 8 , yes 8 at mt smart and then 2 byes...we need to make mt smart a fortress and win those 8 ...are those shit teams we lost to at the start going to come back and haunt us.....again !!!
 
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Jordan G

Guest
Will stick by what I said before the Titans game. If we win 4 from our next 6 we make it, if not we don't. 1/1 so far, another must win game against the Knights.
 
Sup42

Sup42

The Raiders could be about to demonstrate the Origin effect.

The Cows are on the same points as us....

As such the raiders are helping us close on the Cows for tenth the cows are on a massive + 79 points differential....we need the Riders to smash that total.

You dont want us and the cows finishing on even points with that massive points for tally they've banked.
 
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matiunz

matiunz

This year yet?
Contributor
Still on a knife edge for mine. Had we lost last night I would have said no, still hopeful but next few weeks will be crucial.
 
wallacenz

wallacenz

not according to the ABC stats man earlier. They also pick the GF will be Manly v Dogs

Their statistical anaysis was pretty in depth to come up with the top 8 and top 4 and final 2
 
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Sup42

Sup42

not according to the ABC stats man earlier. They also pick the GF will be Manly v Dogs

Their statistical anaysis was pretty in depth to come up with the top 8 and top 4 and final 2
I rate the ABC as the best experts in the game.

I wouldn't pick the Warriors if I were them either. What their predictive analysis can't account for is teams that have a lot of room for improvement finding a way to unleash that potential.

The Warriors are banking on it. From what I've seen of McFadden this lot could do it.
 
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Sebastian

Sebastian

not according to the ABC stats man earlier. They also pick the GF will be Manly v Dogs

Their statistical anaysis was pretty in depth to come up with the top 8 and top 4 and final 2

I have no idea how the indepth stats man came up with that. But either way he's picking us to lose to the shiter teams. I think he's underestimating our talent and MORE importantly our coach. Fair enough going off the start of the season. I can understand that bias. But our stats over the last 6 weeks with McFadden in charge have been off the charts.

Top 4 stats 24 points scored on average. 16 points conceded on average. Simple reality is they're picking us to lose to the lower ranked teams but with those stats no way is that possible. McFadden is the key and will be the defining factor IMO as to whether our hot form, win or lose, continues on.

Shit, even our losses have been class. When we lost earlier in the season our losses were garbage. That's the biggest change, IMO, when things are against us we are fighting on. Almost stole the game last week against the Dogs. With so little possesion that was a almighty effort. Short story we keep it up and nothing will stop a top 8 berth.
 
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