General The Lance Hohaia Theorem

[Jesbass_old]

I'd like to propose a theorem, henceforth known as the Lance Hohaia Theorem (LHT), whereby a player's performance is not judged by the quantity of mistakes or shortcomings he brings to the playing field, but by the timing, field position, and circumstance of said mistakes.

A case in point is Lance Hohaia's performance against the Sea Eagles.

Here are a few stats of his game:
19 runs with ball in hand (1st in the Warriors, 2nd across both teams)
144m gained (1st in the Warriors, 2nd across both teams)
40 receives (3rd in the Warriors, 5th across both teams)
5 tackles (15th= in the Warriors, 28th= across both teams)
1 one-on-one tackle (9th= for the Warriors, 17th= across both teams)
0 ineffective tackles (1st= for the Warriors, 1st= across both teams)
2 missed tackles (8th= for the Warriors, 13th across both teams)
5 tackles breaks (2nd for the Warriors, 3rd= across both teams)
2 errors (14th= for the Warriors, 29th= across both teams)
0 penalties conceded (1st= for the Warriors, 1st= across both teams)

So the stats show that he played, for the mostpart, a good game. He was the ebst in a few departments, and close to it in a coupld of others. He was by no means the worst.

BUT...

The LHT states that it is the timing, field position, and circumstance of mistakes that will affect how he is viewed by the fans. Lance's biggest mistake was, ironically, not an error. It was offloading the ball only 15m out on the first tackle to an unsuspecting Jerome Ropati. On the one hand, it could be argued that Jerome couldn't have been expecting the ball, but on the other hand, as a support player, one would think these players would have an "always be ready" attitude.

There is no excuse for Hohaia's offload - even if it had paid off, it would have been heart-in-the-mouth stuff. It seems to me that his performance on the weekend was typical Hohaia. Glimpses of brilliance stabbed by occasional howlers. A career that has led a busy trail of talent and potential, potholed by schoolboy errors.

It's nice to see that at least one user, (BLACKALLOVER), has recognised that Hohaia didn't actually have the horrible game people's reactions are suggesting.

 

[Fazz_old]

Fair call. He's still not really a proper fullback though

 

[pilky01_old]

personally, Hohaia is one of those players I love to hate, yet love praise, and by the sound of this thread you all feel the same way.

however he is really solid player and beside the sea eagles game has played soundly at the back. he is mister fix it for the warriors and I think its kind of unfair slamming him for a single performance which like Jesbass proved was actually a decent performance. personally i think he needs to come off the bench and play dummy half where he would be strongest....

but without a full back we don't really have a choice do we? and please dont say Kevin Locke, although he is an exceptional talent and one day will no doubly make the first grade team. at 17 he is too young and too small, dont rush the kid into first grade, give him some time to fill out then throw him in.

 

[BLACKALLOVER_old]

Individual stats mean nothing unless you are comparing them with his opposite.
And then you compare what those around him did and the same on the opposing side.
Thats when you get the full story.

 

[Kaiaua krusher_old]

I think you have nailed in one JB.

I was that brassed off, that I wouldn't look at the stats. However Ritchie Barnett as well as all in sundry saw the blue that Lance made. Barnett, also said on Radio Sport that that mistake could have been covered and should have by maintaining the strong defence across the park.

Then on the One News last night, I also saw that Witt dropped the ball cold, and another knock on occurred when deep in the red zone.

So there was a sustained period of mishaps prior to Lances and yet he alone is copping the flack.

He will probably cop a drop this week and I think that would be a traversty. He was and is one of the busiest guy on the field. He deserves a kick in the butt from Ivan, but drop him I don't know!!

Oh by the way just heard that Lance is in!!!!!!

Manu is out.

 

[pilky01_old]

is manu actually out? or is that just your opinion

 

[Kaiaua krusher_old]

Nah Manu is. Salomona is in

 

[pilky01_old]

yeh, Just read another thread.... that sucks, Salomona is tops though

 

[attila_the_gorilla]

If you put all the current fullbacks of the competition up for auction, who would be the cheapest? Lance Hohaia. Every fullback can make some metres, it depends only on the opponent`s kicking game. Especially against Manly, both teams` forwards struggled to make inroads, the kicks were often made from far out, and therefore the fullback had more time and room with the kick return.

What is it that differentiates good fullbacks from medicre ones? Ball security, support running, line breaks and goal line defense.

Now I understand when people say he`s not a fullback, he`s playing out of position. But that will be the case no matter where he plays, because he`s not a specialist at anything.

 

[Kid-Dynamite_old]

Now I understand when people say he`s not a fullback, he`s playing out of position. But that will be the case no matter where he plays, because he`s not a specialist at anything.

His best position would be hooker IMO, and he could easily become a specialist there!

 

[BLACKALLOVER_old]

Hence the word 'utility" my friend.
So that makes his stats look even better, compared to those regulars around him.

 

[attila_the_gorilla]

19 runs with ball in hand (1st in the Warriors, 2nd across both teams)
- A fullback returns kicks. He runs with ball in hand. That`s his number one job. Stats are perfectly predictable.

144m gained (1st in the Warriors, 2nd across both teams)
- A fullback returns kicks. He runs with ball in hand. That`s his number one job. Stats are perfectly predictable.

- 5 tackles breaks (2nd for the Warriors, 3rd= across both teams)
A fullback has the chance to wind up and run at the defense, occasionally going past the first tackler with a step. Perfectly normal.

Busy is what fullbacks always are, especially when there are so many long kicks in the game.

I`m not saying he played awful, he had an average fullback`s game apart from the mistakes. My problem is his goal-line defense is poor, he lacks vision in attack and he doesn`t have the X-factor every fullback must have. He hasn`t even looked like breaking the line all season.

 

[Kid-Dynamite_old]

0 ineffective tackles (1st= for the Warriors, 1st= across both teams)
2 missed tackles (8th= for the Warriors, 13th across both teams)

What constitutes an ineffective tackle?

I thought an ineffective tackle would be a missed tackle, i.e falling of the player

 

[attila_the_gorilla]

Hmm maybe a tackle that stops the player but leaks an offload?

 

[Iafeta_old]

Jesbass my good mate, I know you'll accept this with good humour but for all your good intentions I'd say that theory is largely horsecrap. Deep down everyone knows it as well. The runs? I'd be disappointed if the fullback didn't rate highly. He's got to bring the ball back, surely? Jes, what's Lance's average run metres per game against Stewart? What's Lance's average run metres v McKinnon last year? What about against Slater? Bowen? Hunt? Perrett when he's fullback? Wesser? Kearney? Let's sit down for a cup of coffee and a tim-tam when he measures up consistently against these blokes. What's the percentage of times Lance cleans up a difficult situation against these blokes? That I can't give you the answer for, because it's not kept by statisticians but I think it'd be cringeworthy.

The true facts, not based on statistical theorems but on reality is this;

Against the Penrith Panthers, Lance Hohaia cost the Warriors their first try by slowly jogging out to meet a grubber, that sat up. Too casual.

Against the Manly Sea Eagles some 4-5 weeks later, Lance Hohaia first kick through to him gets a simple kick, he tries to catch it one hand. Again, casual. Lance takes the ball, but he has to tap it up to gather it, as I say an easy kick nothing too hard, and that gives Manly time for 5m to get up and pressure him. Momentum for the set sucked. The point here is Lance failed to learn.

On the game, there was a sitter of a high ball put up with no pressure, Lance tries to catch it at ankle level. Anyone who's anyone knows you catch the ball as high up as possible so your eyes have the maximum exposure to the ball. I was taught that in under 6's.

Against Penrith, off a drop out, Lance tries to catch one knee high with his feet. Not trap it, I dead set maintain the bloke thought he'd catch it. I don't know what the plan was from there, whether he planned to dribble it or hop and hold it on his right foot in the hook of his boot, and then kick an offload field goal, but it was bizarre. Again, too casual.

Third or fourth set, Lance offloads 20m behind the ruck (yes that's right, another silly play that doesn't enter the stats), Mick Luck turns around and gets to the ball, and surrenders. That's fourth tackle, we're back in our 20m. All momentum killed.

Second half, Lance bombs a kick off. I can accept that.

What I can't accept is he didn't learn. Ten minutes later one comes his way, mind you this is with ten minutes to go, with the Warriors in front, Lance thinks it's a good idea once he's caught the difficult ball that he's put down to toss a hail mary out the back to Jerome Ropati whose dropped a thousand balls for the game, for what reason only Lance will know.

And again, we carry on 'Only Lance will know'. Only Lance could ever understand most of his short kicks. I've never seen a player in the NRL kick grubbers into the in goal (and inevitably smash into the advertising hoardings), and see his team-mates standing there going "WTF?", and not chase because they had no idea it was on or why it was on in Lance's mind. At times, Lance doesn't even chase them. The worst part of this is inevitably he does it on early tackle when we need to mount pressure. I've deadset lost count of the amount of games he's done that in.

Conclusion:

Lance is quick.
Lance has fundamental errors in his game.
Lance's kicking game is awful and despite conclusive evidence to suggest this he perserveres.
Lance plays the game casual.
Lance has been tried in a number of positions, and inevitably failed to make the grade in any of them.
Lance has a happy knack of coming into a position and going very well. And then going solidly downhill. Is it complacency?
Lance needs a change in club.
If I could pick one player who I would not bet my life on to come up with an accurate play, it's Lance.
On numerous occassions excuses are mounted in defence of Lance, from lack of faith, to lack of consistent selection etc. Lance has played over 100 first grade games and has not reached the standards required to be anything other a stop gap measure utility.
Lance is systematic of the failings of the roster loading, he is not alone in any of these criticisms and sadly I must point that Nathan Fien and Grant Rovelli are in exactly the same situation. Jack of all trades, masters of none and thus utterly wasteful to our cap expenditure.

I wish the bloke all the best, continue to cheer him on in any game he participates for the Warriors and Kiwis, and deadset hate having to be in a position to lambast him, but if I was in charge of recruitment/retention at this club, the names Hohaia, Fien and Rovelli would be high on the agenda of 'When the hell do their contracts end?' Even as I scout below, I look at Lance's potential positions... Halves, I rate O'Regan and John as better players, hooker, I rate Arron Pawley is a better player, fullback, I rate Kevin Locke as a better player, centre I'd go with Francis Leger any day of the week and twice on Sunday. I sincerely hope in a month or so we can all turn around and say 'Told you say Iafeta, you old goose you got this one horribly wrong so there,' I would love a thread on that nature, and I really hope Lance pulls it off, but I'm just sick and tired of the same things repeatedly happening. Settling into a position, taking the bull by the horns... relaxing and ultimately failing.

Ultimately I come back to the Ghostbuster's theory. "When the game's on the line, who you gonna call?" Not Lance Hohaia. Yet again against Manly, Lance hurt us and hurt us bad. As did Witt, as did Ropati.

 

[BLACKALLOVER_old]

Geez,, not only a Warrior basher, but hates Lance as well.
And furthermore to your post would you really push those young guys who you rate so highly up into the NRL.
You need your head read if that is the case..
.

 

[Iafeta_old]

Geez,, not only a Warrior basher, but hates Lance as well.
.

Perhaps you can't read, or perhaps you have selective reading impediment. So for your benefit,

I wish the bloke all the best, continue to cheer him on in any game he participates for the Warriors and Kiwis, and deadset hate having to be in a position to lambast him,

Yep, it's all based on some form of personality conflict. I """hate"""" Lance Hohaia, where do you get your information Sherlock for these informed conclusions of yours?

 

[2big2strong_old]

I didn't lambast any player from the weekend, Jerome though I think had a ordinary game but lance wasn't all that bad.

One stat I don't get on there Jesbass is "ineffective tackles"

Now, in my books you either MAKE a tackle or you MISS it, where the hell does an "ineffective or effective" tackle differ from a "tackle" or "missed tackle".

They're just making up stats now

 

[Skinny_Ravs82]

I think he is a good player that had ptoencial to blossom but it has never come to bear fruit.

 

[Tintin_old]

personally, Hohaia is one of those players I love to hate, yet love praise, and by the sound of this thread you all feel the same way.

however he is really solid player and beside the sea eagles game has played soundly at the back. he is mister fix it for the warriors and I think its kind of unfair slamming him for a single performance which like Jesbass proved was actually a decent performance. personally i think he needs to come off the bench and play dummy half where he would be strongest....

but without a full back we don't really have a choice do we? and please dont say Kevin Locke, although he is an exceptional talent and one day will no doubly make the first grade team. at 17 he is too young and too small, dont rush the kid into first grade, give him some time to fill out then throw him in.

He's 19, 20 next year.

Yes, Locke does well in the U20.