General The Formula for Making the Top 8 Every Year

Thought I'd do a bit of a deeper dive into what is required to be a top 8 team and why the Warriors have only managed it once in the last 10 years.

It's not line breaks.

It's not post contact metres.

It's not push supports.

It's not Shaun Johnson's lack of game management.

...it's the "boring" part of the game for most kids coming through.

DEFENCE.

I've been banging on about this for years but nothing seems to change.

Some say simple stats mean nothing, but I disagree. Here are some examples.

Average Points Conceded Per Game

The magic number here is 20.

Between 2011 - 2021 (11 seasons), out of 88 teams to have made the top 8, only 10 of them have done so by conceding more than an average of 20 points per game.

89% of teams who make the top 8 do so by conceding less than an average of 20 points per game.

During this time, the Warriors have made the 8 twice:

2011: 6th place, conceding an average of 16.38 points per game
2018: 8th placed, conceding an average of 18.63 points per game

Surprise, surprise - the 2 seasons where we've conceded less than an average of 20 points per game, we've made the top 8.

Warriors Wins Where Opposition Kept to 20 or Under

Over the last 7 seasons, when the Warriors have won (61 wins between 2016 - 2022), we've kept the opposition to 20 points or below on 52 of those occasions.

85% of the time when the Warriors have won we've leaked 20 points or less.

2022: 4 wins with 3 wins @ 20 or below = 75%
2021: 8 wins with 6 wins @ 20 or below = 75%
2020: 8 wins with 5 wins @ 20 or below = 62.5%
2019: 9 wins with 9 wins @ 20 or below = 100%
2018: 15 wins with 15 wins @ 90 or below = 100%
2017: 7 wins with 5 wins @ 20 or below = 71%
2016: 10 wins with 9 wins @ 20 or below = 90%

All Warriors Games (wins and losses) Where Opposition Kept to 20 or Under

2022: 3W, 1L = 75%
2021: 6W, 5L = 54.5%
2020: 5W, 5L = 50%
2019: 9W, 4L = 69%
2018: 15W, 2L = 88%
2017: 5W, 1L = 83%
2016: 9W, 2L = 81%

52 Wins, 20 Losses.

The Warriors have a 72% winning record over the last 7 seasons when we keep the opposition to 20 points or less.

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Stop the opposition from scoring and you'll never lose a game. Not practically possible but the right philosophical approach to defence.

Attack is easy and will flow off the back of solid defence.

Look at 3 teams this year who have figured it out (so far) compared to last year:

Cowboys 15th in 2021 @ 31.17 average points conceded per game to 3rd in 2022 @ 12.56 average points conceded per game
Broncos 14th in 2021 @ 28.96 average points conceded per game to 6th in 2022 @ 16.90 average points conceded per game
Sharks 9th in 2021 @ 23.17 average points conceded per game to 4th in 2022 @ 15.33 average points conceded per game

Ex Warriors and now Cowboys coach Todd Payten - along with a few of his players - have said on a few occasions this year that all they did during the off season was focus on defence. Endless tackling. Playing the game the "right" way is Payten's catch phrase.

Fuck I wish we were able to secure him.
 
The formula is fix our edge defence
Which is basically what you are saying

When Payten took us on a winning run in 2020 we had two loan player wings who didn't jam in.
 
Thought I'd do a bit of a deeper dive into what is required to be a top 8 team and why the Warriors have only managed it once in the last 10 years.

It's not line breaks.

It's not post contact metres.

It's not push supports.

It's not Shaun Johnson's lack of game management.

...it's the "boring" part of the game for most kids coming through.

DEFENCE.

I've been banging on about this for years but nothing seems to change.

Some say simple stats mean nothing, but I disagree. Here are some examples.

Average Points Conceded Per Game

The magic number here is 20.

Between 2011 - 2021 (11 seasons), out of 88 teams to have made the top 8, only 10 of them have done so by conceding more than an average of 20 points per game.

89% of teams who make the top 8 do so by conceding less than an average of 20 points per game.

During this time, the Warriors have made the 8 twice:

2011: 6th place, conceding an average of 16.38 points per game
2018: 8th placed, conceding an average of 18.63 points per game

Surprise, surprise - the 2 seasons where we've conceded less than an average of 20 points per game, we've made the top 8.

Warriors Wins Where Opposition Kept to 20 or Under

Over the last 7 seasons, when the Warriors have won (61 wins between 2016 - 2022), we've kept the opposition to 20 points or below on 52 of those occasions.

85% of the time when the Warriors have won we've leaked 20 points or less.

2022: 4 wins with 3 wins @ 20 or below = 75%
2021: 8 wins with 6 wins @ 20 or below = 75%
2020: 8 wins with 5 wins @ 20 or below = 62.5%
2019: 9 wins with 9 wins @ 20 or below = 100%
2018: 15 wins with 15 wins @ 90 or below = 100%
2017: 7 wins with 5 wins @ 20 or below = 71%
2016: 10 wins with 9 wins @ 20 or below = 90%

All Warriors Games (wins and losses) Where Opposition Kept to 20 or Under

2022: 3W, 1L = 75%
2021: 6W, 5L = 54.5%
2020: 5W, 5L = 50%
2019: 9W, 4L = 69%
2018: 15W, 2L = 88%
2017: 5W, 1L = 83%
2016: 9W, 2L = 81%

52 Wins, 20 Losses.

The Warriors have a 72% winning record over the last 7 seasons when we keep the opposition to 20 points or less.

---------------------

Stop the opposition from scoring and you'll never lose a game. Not practically possible but the right philosophical approach to defence.

Attack is easy and will flow off the back of solid defence.

Look at 3 teams this year who have figured it out (so far) compared to last year:

Cowboys 15th in 2021 @ 31.17 average points conceded per game to 3rd in 2022 @ 12.56 average points conceded per game
Broncos 14th in 2021 @ 28.96 average points conceded per game to 6th in 2022 @ 16.90 average points conceded per game
Sharks 9th in 2021 @ 23.17 average points conceded per game to 4th in 2022 @ 15.33 average points conceded per game

Ex Warriors and now Cowboys coach Todd Payten - along with a few of his players - have said on a few occasions this year that all they did during the off season was focus on defence. Endless tackling. Playing the game the "right" way is Payten's catch phrase.

Fuck I wish we were able to secure him.
Music to my ears! How can they win anything when they leak 30 plus points a game! Fucken fix this shit up Brown!
 
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I think Defence is the most important Aspect per say that a footy team can master.
But I think just learning to defend is only a facet of the extremely complicated and nuanced aspect of forming the team.
Penrith have almost a sacred band aspect of playing for each other. Melbourne have an air of professionalism, Brisbane have had a proud history , east's and south's have long history's...
The group from ceo to admin to office blokes to coaches to players to systems to reserve grade sides is what it takes ....
I think if we persevere with brownie we'll do better.
From being a player from a successfull system regularly enjoying final and grand final appearances to a young successful coach to experiencing England and success there too , to rebuilding Newcastle from the ground up... hopefully it's fruitous.....
 

gpred

Contributor
I think we can look at all the stats we like. They aren't the answer.

For me the key is to somehow make players accountable amongst themselves for their own performances, and that's it.

At this club we just blame the coach. Yes the coach is somewhat charged with creating an environment where players own their own performance, but at the Warriors its extra tough to do. We have gotten rid of all the coaches that started to succeed in this area, one of whom looks like he will go onto to be one of the greatest coaches of all time.

Own your own performance, and the stats take care of themselves.
 
I also don't think our defence is bad. I think its amazing actually, when was the last time the opposition made a clean break through our middle?

The problem is our rookie edges learning to play at the highest level, different combinations every week etc
 
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Beastmode

Just another day in paradise
Contributor
I think we can look at all the stats we like. They aren't the answer.

For me the key is to somehow make players accountable amongst themselves for their own performances, and that's it.

At this club we just blame the coach. Yes the coach is somewhat charged with creating an environment where players own their own performance, but at the Warriors its extra tough to do. We have gotten rid of all the coaches that started to succeed in this area, one of whom looks like he will go onto to be one of the greatest coaches of all time.

Own your own performance, and the stats take care of themselves.

Stats definitely helps but there’s no one secret sauce to winning - it’s a combination of factors
 
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Ex Warriors and now Cowboys coach Todd Payten - along with a few of his players - have said on a few occasions this year that all they did during the off season was focus on defence. Endless tackling. Playing the game the "right" way is Payten's catch phrase.

Fuck I wish we were able to secure him.

Thats what Kearney started. But of course we didnt win a prem in three years so he had to go.
 
I also don't think our defence is bad. I think its amazing actually, when was the last time the opposition made a clean break through our middle?

The problem is our rookie edges learning to play at the highest level, different combinations every week etc

Our amazing defence has leaked the most points so far this year.

We've conceded 40 tries, second only to the Knights at 43.

We've conceded the most tries in the middle third of the field (10) than any other team so far this year.

Has our defence in the middle third improved? Yep - I'm seeing improvements. But that's a sad indictment on how terrible is has been and still currently is.
 
Our amazing defence has leaked the most points so far this year.

We've conceded 40 tries, second only to the Knights at 43.

We've conceded the most tries in the middle third of the field (10) than any other team so far this year.

Has our defence in the middle third improved? Yep - I'm seeing improvements. But that's a sad indictment on how terrible is has been and still currently is.


Midle third = edges
 
The formula is fix our edge defence
Which is basically what you are saying

When Payten took us on a winning run in 2020 we had two loan player wings who didn't jam in.
Our lack of controlling the ruck speed is a far bigger problem. Edge defence is a problem but a easy fix, should be, who knows if it’s individuals or coaching tactics. A good tactic on defending the edge is everyone up as a line 5 steps, take the space and just jockey(pushing out and trusting your inside man).