General NZ Election

  • Thread starter The 22 BEAST_old
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NEWBIE_old

Guest
National will win guaranteed. You have to be a shocking Governemnt to get kicked out of office after your first term , New Zealanders are resistant to change.
 

MarkW_old

Guest
The Nats should cruise in this election with over 50%. Labour will be lucky to reach beyond 30%. The Greens will get a few more MPs in parliament. ACT will barely scrape in with Banks taking the seat in Epsom. Dunne will be gooooorne.
The most interesting seats to watch will be the Maori. Labour could possibly win back a couple and Hone may just retain the TTT electorate vote.
 

dingleberry_old

Guest
I don't think National will get over 50%. This election is very very similar to 2002 in many ways, except National and Labour have swapped positions. In 2002, Labour looked like they would get over 50%, but come election day, voters decided that if National weren't going to be a solid opposition,they would vote for anyone but Labour. Jack Vowles called the 2002 election the "Voters Veto". I think we'll see similar things happen this year.
National have been polling incredibly well - Labour even had popular support on policy but can't translate this into votes. (Perhaps an example of how stupid the average voter is... "duhh, Labour have really like, super cool ideas, but John Key is just so lovely so i'm going to vote for him".
I think what will be more interesting will be the MMP referendum and how the minor parties fare. ACT looks like they will be on the way out, but it all comes down to Epsom and National. If National ran any sort of campaign in Epsom ACT would be out. They won't though, because, strategically, it's better for them to have ACT pick up that seat.
Will be interesting to see how Maori Party fare after the National coalition, especially as about 80% of their voters voted for Labour in the party vote. Will also be interesting to see if Winston can come back.
 

MarkW_old

Guest
Don't forget there is also an MMP referendum to vote for in this election as well.

I tend to think the majority of voters will stick with MMP. It's not a perfect system but it represents the party vote pretty well.
The only thing I don't like about MMP is the scenario where a candidate can win a seat and drag a couple of extra MPs with him/her even though the party gets under 5%.

STV looks like a reasonable option too. Although I tend to think it might annoy/confuse some voters.
 

MarkW_old

Guest
Goff is a decent politician. He's been in the business for long enough to know it inside out too.
The trouble is, he just can't seem to get the general voting public to warm to him the same way Key is able to.

It'll be interesting to see how he performs in the debates and general electioneering over the weeks leading up.
 

Northern_Union

Guest
A mate of mine from my cricketing days is standing for Labour locally. Good guy but i wont be voting for him or Labour. Currently unsure who i'll vote for.
 

LordGnome_old

Guest
By all accounts, he's a really nice guy.

Yeah, I have met him.

I have met Key, too, and behind closed doors he is quite open about his plans for the country - short-term thinking, asset sales etc and let future generations pay for it all.
 

PB_old

Guest
Labour are such a terrible opposition. They've lost touch with their base, expect support as a right, and are unable to organise a coherent, relevant, message. If Goff wasn't there their position may improve. It's all fine owning the debating chamber, but on camera he's ineffectual and carries the baggage of being identified with a government caned in the ballot box.

National have an array of ill-equiped MPs -- albeit only a few more than Labour -- with the added 'bonus' of enlarged punishment glands, led by a charming gambler. Take away the charm and they'd tank big-time. National need to be careful as Key will only stick around as long as he wants to. He's not the politician-for-life type.

Lots of other sideshows with Winnie providing some fun, Dunne selling out to some interest (again), Banks ensuring that ACT are no different than Anderton was with Progressive, and the Maori seats will be vital again. The media will barrack for whoever they want, promote the cult-of-personality and concentrate of some trivial matter rather than concentrate on policies.

Money will be made by those in power, their friends, and their 'friends'. Everyone involved will rejoice. Hooray!

I'll be voting Green, as always.
 
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LordGnome_old

Guest
Labour are such an ineffective opposition. They've lost touch with their base, expect support as a right, and are unable to organise a coherent, relevant, message. If Goff wasn't there their position may improve. It's all fine owning the debating chamber, but on camera he's ineffectual and carries the baggage being identified with a govenment caned in the ballot box.

Indeed.
 
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LordGnome_old

Guest
National have an array of ill-equiped MPs -- albeit only a few more than Labour -- with the added 'bonus' of enlarged punishment glands, led by a charming gambler. Take away the charm and they'd tank big-time.

Again, agreed.
 

LordGnome_old

Guest
The media will barrack for whoever they want, promote the cult-of-personality and concentrate of some trivial matter rather that concentrate on policies.

Money will be made by those in power, their friends, and their 'friends'.

And thrice.
 

MarkW_old

Guest
Good call pb.

I just hope voters analyse the actual policies each party puts out and makes a decision based primarily on that rather than personalities. Wishful thinking perhaps.
 
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