General John Key Quits.

Inruin

Contributor
That is probably right, but so are most of the taxi drivers, parking wardens and Z forecourt attendants, and what are we going to do next year when the credit squeeze hits and nobody has any money to build a new home?
if there is a credit squeeze it will be the year after next, but I don't think it will happen. Certainly not a major one anyway
 

bruce

Contributor
Only 1 in 3 Aucklanders were born here - are you suggesting the forced repatriation of people back to whichever shithole in NZ they are from?
Not at all, but I would like the stupid rules to stop that allow them to come in the first place. I live among immigrants who I have come to know. There is no way I want them sent back.

However there are enough Kiwis able to drive taxis and work on the forecourt at Z. They are still coming in on student visas, then get jacked up jobs with the family business, and bring in others on arranged marriages.

I cannot bring in immigrants for my business so why should they? Somebody tell me that.
 

Inruin

Contributor
A lot think it will be 2017. Ask John Key, he must have some idea.
there will be some uncertainty in the market given its an election year. If national wins again should be fairly stable. a result the other way I'm not so sure about. Either way key will be blamed for something. It's hard to be successful in NZ without someone trying to hack you down.
 
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bruce

Contributor
there will be some uncertainty in the market given its an election year. If national wins again should be fairly stable. a result the other way I'm not so sure about. Either way key will be blamed for something. It's hard to be successful in NZ without someone trying to hack you down.
Key won't be causing the crisis. The debt management from the National Government leaves NZ in a better position to cope with a downturn than many other countries. However he has been getting the plaudits for the 'rock star" economy and he probably knows that isn't enough to cope with a serious shock.

The shock could be a sudden increase in housing in Auckland (highly unlikely), a sharp reduction in immigration (possible with student numbers from China), substantial increase in overseas interest rates (quite likely), another earthquake needing more government borrowing OR a massive financial collapse overseas (highly likely).

The most obvious problem is that Auckland is becoming an unattractive place to live for people who want to buy a home. That is going to hit the labour market eventually. Also rents are less than mortgage repayments, so if landlords get hit with interest rate increases that could lead to foreclosures.

House prices are falling already, yet this is not a collapse. What will happen when a shock hits?
 

Inruin

Contributor
Key won't be causing the crisis. The debt management from the National Government leaves NZ in a better position to cope with a downturn than many other countries. However he has been getting the plaudits for the 'rock star" economy and he probably knows that isn't enough to cope with a serious shock.

The shock could be a sudden increase in housing in Auckland (highly unlikely), a sharp reduction in immigration (possible with student numbers from China), substantial increase in overseas interest rates (quite likely), another earthquake needing more government borrowing OR a massive financial collapse overseas (highly likely).

The most obvious problem is that Auckland is becoming an unattractive place to live for people who want to buy a home. That is going to hit the labour market eventually. Also rents are less than mortgage repayments, so if landlords get hit with interest rate increases that could lead to foreclosures.

House prices are falling already, yet this is not a collapse. What will happen when a shock hits?
yup, some or all of those things could happen. However, Auckland is still growing, new houses can't be built fast enough to supply demand. I'm not sure where you get rents are lower than mortgage payments for landlords. All investors I know are well covered. Interest rates could rise but hasn't been signalled by the reserve bank - yet. Even if they do I cant imagine there would be a dramatic increase. It would possibly take a bit of time to impact on fixed term loans. house prices may have fallen slightly over the last few months but long term trend remains. Biggest issues are another large natural disaster and/or a massive financial collapse in a country that is or affects a large trading partner of ours
 

mt.wellington

Warriors Orange Peeler
Mate, the only qualified builders working in Auckland currently are all immigrants!
Thats a load of shit. Plenty of NZ born chippies plying their trade in JAFAland. Some of the bigger construction companies have teams of immigrants but still employ more Kiwis then immigrants. Some trades are also majority Asian like tilers, gib stoppers, plastering etc. You also have Asian house owners who will contract as many Asian tradies as possible especially around Dannemora area and far south by Whangarata and Onewhero but by and large most tradies are fair dinkum Kiwis...
 
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