I completely agree. Personally, I like stats because they can provide a good starting point, but they certainly don't give us the conclusion in most discussions.
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I completely agree. Personally, I like stats because they can provide a good starting point, but they certainly don't give us the conclusion in most discussions.
DanKokoro_old
Guest
I can't comment on the Rabbitohs match, because I was mercifully spared from watching it, but a recent discussion raised the point that while Royal doesn't drop the ball often, he tends to do so at crucial moments, thus giving people the perception that he makes plenty of errors.
Incidentally, for the sake of clarification, Royal has dropped the ball 12 times in 18 matches. In comparison, the other players who have dropped it at a worse ratio are Lance Hohaia (12 times in 16 matches), Brent Tate (14 in 14), Jerome Ropati (18 in 17), James Maloney (19 in 17), Kevin Locke (19 in 14) and Manu Vatuvei (19 in 12).
Jesbass.. while you're looking at the stats from 2010 have a look at the stats from 2009.. it takes like 2 clicks to go there.. because i'm pretty sure that's where Royals reputation for dropping the ball comes from. Compare his error and penalty rate to the other forwards and i think you'll find he made a shitload more errors and gave away a shitload more penalties than anyone else while playing far less minutes.
Is it fair to judge him on last year? not really.. but his 2010 stats currently don't look much better. if you look at the players around him on the list.. All backs, all playing twice the minutes he does. I agree with Tyreal in that if you're going to get scientific and use stats, you should use them scientifically and compare Royal with other forwards.
While you may be right in that he doesn't drop the ball as much as some people are saying he does. You have to consider what he's doing to make up for that dropped ball, and how that affects peoples perceptions.
I couldn't care less if Manu drops the ball because he's going to make up for it and then some. And so at the end of the game i'm not going to remember that Manu made 3 errors, because he scored two tries and won us the game and i love him even more than i did before! Royal on the other hand who comes on the field, makes a few soft hittups, loses the ball in a tackle, gives away a penalty and then goes and has a sit down. I'm far more likely to remember that and that's why i couldn't stand him last year. He was just a guaranteed error and penalty while providing nothing else.
He's definitely improved this year with both his error rate and his go-forward. He's done enough to change my opinion of him but some people have a harder time forgiving than others.
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Jesbass_old
Guest
Jesbass.. while you're looking at the stats from 2010 have a look at the stats from 2009.. it takes like 2 clicks to go there.. because i'm pretty sure that's where Royals reputation for dropping the ball comes from.
Yes, this was the argument I posited when you (I think it was you?) raised the idea of it being the significance of his errors rather than the frequency of them. That was a good point, and one I'd not thought of, though I suspect the truth is that both these factors have contributed to the drop-a-thon perception.
I agree with Tyreal in that if you're going to get scientific and use stats, you should use them scientifically and compare Royal with other forwards.
Absolutely, but as I noted to Warrioraholic, I'm not trying to state a conclusion, but a starting point. Stats are good for that. Then we can interpret them as we like, taking in factors like minutes per match, carries per match, what his positional peers are doing, and so on.
Much of the rest of your post appears directed at a conclusion, which is fair enough, but I haven't formed a conclusion regarding Royal. I only assert that he isn't making as many dropped balls as some suggest, and that he appears on surface level (without actually checking the stats) to be performing better in 2009 than he was in 2008.
That's merely a foundation for discussion. Whether that warrants his selection each week is where the debate begins, and I've not formed an opinion on that.
ToiletDuck_old
Guest
That's merely a foundation for discussion. Whether that warrants his selection each week is where the debate begins, and I've not formed an opinion on that.
With Rapira and Price both fit...no.
That's a moot point though I guess.
Personally, I think he's a passenger, and as some have said...his risk:benefit ratio just doesn't stack up. Nor does his age. I'd be happier with a mistake maker 20 yr old with a future.
Jesbass_old
Guest
With Rapira and Price both fit...no.
That's a moot point though I guess.
Personally, I think he's a passenger, and as some have said...his risk:benefit ratio just doesn't stack up. Nor does his age. I'd be happier with a mistake maker 20 yr old with a future.
That certainly sounds like Ta'ai last year. (Not sure if he was actually 20, but still.)
He thought the game was hot potato in his first match. The stats are kind to give him only 2 errors in his debut match, because he did at least one other, but fortunately for him, it was after the half time siren.
And look at him now - awesome!
ToiletDuck_old
Guest
That certainly sounds like Ta'ai last year. (Not sure if he was actually 20, but still.)
He thought the game was hot potato in his first match. The stats are kind to give him only 2 errors in his debut match, because he did at least one other, but fortunately for him, it was after the half time siren.
And look at him now - awesome!
Well, that's sort of my point.
Personally, at first glance, I didn't give Ta'ai much of a chance. I still maintain I'd be surprised (pleasantly) if he's at the club in a few years. But the way I see it..as a pure numbers game, we're more likely to stumble across a keeper the more we throw ourselves out there..
But that's just me, I've always maintained I'd rather cop a few floggings developing youth than finish 8th with dignity intact and never win a premiership.
DanKokoro_old
Guest
Here are some stats..
Figures below represent the average number of minutes it took for a player to either make an error or incur a penalty. e.g. Royal averaged just over 30 minutes play time per game so he'd make roughly 1.5 errors/penalties per game.
2009 he was an absolute shocker.. made almost twice the errors as the next closest Ta'ai.
2010 he has improved, so has almost everyone else though. Still i think on a error/value to the team ratio, he's still by FAR the worst.
2009
Royal 21.5
Ta'ai 38.6
Brown 41.2
Steven 54.0
Hendog 57.2
Mannering 83.2
Packer 83.4
Rapira 86.9
Big Ben 88.5
Lillyman 89.1
Luck 91.2
2010
Ta'ai 36.0
Royal 39.5
Hendog 67.3
Mannering 73.8
Packer 73.9
Latimore 78.3
Big Ben 79.6
Brown 91.8
Rapira 102.4
Luck 115.4
Figures below represent the average number of minutes it took for a player to either make an error or incur a penalty. e.g. Royal averaged just over 30 minutes play time per game so he'd make roughly 1.5 errors/penalties per game.
2009 he was an absolute shocker.. made almost twice the errors as the next closest Ta'ai.
2010 he has improved, so has almost everyone else though. Still i think on a error/value to the team ratio, he's still by FAR the worst.
2009
Royal 21.5
Ta'ai 38.6
Brown 41.2
Steven 54.0
Hendog 57.2
Mannering 83.2
Packer 83.4
Rapira 86.9
Big Ben 88.5
Lillyman 89.1
Luck 91.2
2010
Ta'ai 36.0
Royal 39.5
Hendog 67.3
Mannering 73.8
Packer 73.9
Latimore 78.3
Big Ben 79.6
Brown 91.8
Rapira 102.4
Luck 115.4
DanKokoro_old
Guest
In fairness to Royal though, As earlier Jesbass stats showed - A large proportion of his errors in 2010 have come from just 2 or 3 games.
Mind you, what's better? A player making 3 errors in one game or spreading them out over 3 games? I guess it depends on a number of other factors.
Mind you, what's better? A player making 3 errors in one game or spreading them out over 3 games? I guess it depends on a number of other factors.
Spence_old
Guest
RRG_old
Guest
Just as well for Luck they don't consider putting himself at first receiver on key plays as an error or those numbers would come well down lol
DanKokoro_old
Guest
It's amazing how few penalties Luck gives away, compared to how many tackles he is involved in.
I guess it's because he's not an idiot. He never goes too high and he knows when it's time to get off a player.
Iafeta_old
Guest
Here are some stats..
Figures below represent the average number of minutes it took for a player to either make an error or incur a penalty. e.g. Royal averaged just over 30 minutes play time per game so he'd make roughly 1.5 errors/penalties per game.
2009 he was an absolute shocker.. made almost twice the errors as the next closest Ta'ai.
2010 he has improved, so has almost everyone else though. Still i think on a error/value to the team ratio, he's still by FAR the worst.
2009
Royal 21.5
Ta'ai 38.6
Brown 41.2
Steven 54.0
Hendog 57.2
Mannering 83.2
Packer 83.4
Rapira 86.9
Big Ben 88.5
Lillyman 89.1
Luck 91.2
2010
Ta'ai 36.0
Royal 39.5
Hendog 67.3
Mannering 73.8
Packer 73.9
Latimore 78.3
Big Ben 79.6
Brown 91.8
Rapira 102.4
Luck 115.4
The other aspect you have to put into that stat is probably comparing it against offloads and line break assists to try and then come up with a stat that shows a benefit for ball-playing. That said, Royal's figures are alarming. I didn't realise they were that bad.
The outstanding ones in that lot are Sam Rapira who offloads well in traffic and Lewis Brown who of course doesn't mind trying something special like a kick or an offload. Their judgement must be especially good and their balance good also.
Viking_old
Guest
That first mistake on Sunday was a 2 on 1 strip, but he made it easier for the bunnies by taking the ball into contact with only one hand therefore they didn't have to wrench it out but just slap it loose and it looks like a lucky tackle. I doubt there'd be any opposition coaches that wouldn't have their players targeting him early when there's nothing at stake.
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