General How the Warriors can finish in the top four

teariki_old

Guest
Okay, I haven't worked out every possible permutation, but there is one simple way for the Warriors to finish in the top four at the end of the minor premiership.

Unfortunately, the Warriors can't decide the destiny of the teams on equal points with them or above them as they aren't playing any of those teams in the remaining rounds. So to finish in the top four, other results need to go their way.

The simplest thing the Warriors can do is win all their remaining matches. The other thing that needs to happen for them is for the two other teams tied with them at current on the points table to drop a game each. These two teams are the Roosters and Penrith.

There's a HUGE game coming up next Monday night, and its the Roosters vs Titans. The Titans are currently in second place, and they could beat the Roosters and drop them below the Warriors.

Penrith seems to have the easiest run home, they're playing Souths, the Doggies and the Sharks. They're in a much better position than the Warriors because of their better points differential, which I don't think the Warriors can make up (Penrith +76, Warriors +10). One of those three teams needs to knock over the Panthers for the Warriors to have a shot at the top 4.

Who does the Warriors have left to play? Manly, Brisbane, and the Eels. Unfortunately, both Manly and Brisbane are only 2 points below the Warriors on the table, and a loss against either will move the winner up alongside the Warriors. Both the Sea Eagles (+54) and the Broncos (+33) currently have better differentials than the Warriors and they'll move ahead of them.

The other way the Warriors could move into 4th spot is if they win all their three remaining matches, Penrith or the Roosters drop a game AND the Wests Tigers (currently in 3rd position) or Titans (currently in 2nd position) lose two of their three remaining matches. This is a possibility because:

Wests Tigers play the Storm (dangerous) and the Titans (2nd) in their last 3 matches.
The Titans play the Roosters (5th) and West Tigers (3rd) in their last 3 matches.

Going to be a really interesting final three round matches. Hope the Warriors can win all three!
 
Last edited by a moderator:

mrblonde_old

Guest
I think you can count on Penrith losing to Souths and I'd even pick the Bulldogs at a pinch.

Penrith aren't going to make the preliminary finals, in my opinion. They've lost too many recently to be serious contenders.

Gold Coast, while they did beat North Queensland, look a little snakey. The scoreline from 19-0 to 19-18 to 37-18. Not a great look.
 

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