Politics NZ Politics

Who will get your vote in this years election?

  • National

    Votes: 17 26.2%
  • Labour

    Votes: 13 20.0%
  • Act

    Votes: 7 10.8%
  • Greens

    Votes: 9 13.8%
  • NZ First

    Votes: 5 7.7%
  • Māori Party

    Votes: 3 4.6%
  • Other

    Votes: 11 16.9%

  • Total voters
    65
  • Poll closed .
So will we soon - the economy has been tanking since the new year.*

It's almost like taking billions out of the economy in one foul swoop would have consequences:unsure:


*Source: Nicola Fucking Willis
The economy has been tanking for the last two years.
Maybe Willis should just print billions more $ like GR did and RB can drop the OCR TO 2%.
Put another two million road cones out and we are fine again.
 
The economy has been tanking for the last two years.
Maybe Willis should just print billions more $ like GR did and RB can drop the OCR TO 2%.
Put another two million road cones out and we are fine again.
Actually thought the economy has has been recovering in the right direction but even so if this does transpire, is an $800 million higher than initially projected tax cut that’s overall value is $3 billion good for the country overall?
 
Actually thought the economy has has been recovering in the right direction but even so if this does transpire, is an $800 million higher than initially projected tax cut that’s overall value is $3 billion good for the country overall?
I hadn't seen it. I notice the cost of living increases and so do all I talk to. Few people have money to spend. Boat and car sales are depressed and so is real estate in most markets despite what agents say.
We have been trying to sell stuff on trademe in anticipation of moving. Very hard to sell anything from furniture, antiques to house plants. Doesn't really matter because can't sell the house.
 


Looks like the economists that said nationals numbers didn’t stack up were spot on
I actually don't understand how National, ACT or the officials from the Newshub article got their numbers. I'm guessing it's all about the assumptions they make as to what interest rates will do and the increase in the number of investment properties purchased in over the next four years.

If we assume that the officials figures are correct and the first year of the ability for landlords to deduct interest of mortgage will cost the government $360,000,000 when landlords still allowed to claim 50% of the interest for the 2023-24 year, that would mean there would be $720,000,000 total deductions to landlords if they were able to claim all the interest as a deduction.

For the year 2024-25, landlords are able to claim 80% which would mean the government is missing $576,000,000 (if the interest rates stay the same and the number of mortgaged properties doesn't increase), yet the officials are saying, based on the newshub article, that the cost to the government would be $780,000,00.

For the year 2026-27, landlords are able to claim 100% which would mean the government is missing $720,000,000 (if the interest rates stay the same and the number of mortgaged properties doesn't increase), yet the officials are saying, based on the newshub article, that the cost to the government would be $855,000,00.

For the year 2027-28, landlords are again able to claim 100% which would mean the government is missing $720,000,000 (if the interest rates stay the same and the number of mortgaged properties doesn't increase), yet the officials are saying, based on the newshub article, that the cost to the government would be $915,000,00.

Adding the numbers of cost to the government based on $720,000,000 PA and adjusted for the percentage landlords can claim, the total cost to the tax payer is $2.375 billion or an average cost to the taxpayer in lost revenue is $595,000,000 PA. This is closer to National's figures of $650,000,000 PA than the officials figures of $2.915 billion or an average cost to the taxpayer in lost revenue is $730,000,000 PA.

But all of this is based on the numbers put into a computer model and then assumptions of interest rates and the number of properties being brought as investments over the next four years and the assumption of how many of those would require borrowing to purchase.

Even then, the dropping interest rates will impact how much additional revenue won't be going to the government. A 2% drop in interest rates from 7% down to 5% means that the government revenue between the existing scheme (when it reaches 0% deducibility) and the proposed scheme (when it returns to 100% deductibility) reduces the government money by 29.5%.... yet the official figures show it going up... not down even though interest rates are dropping (the ASB have just done a third interest rate drop in two weeks).

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The economy has been tanking for the last two years.
Maybe Willis should just print billions more $ like GR did and RB can drop the OCR TO 2%.
Put another two million road cones out and we are fine again.
We have been seeing the signs for a while now. Last year we were in a technical recession. Facts, not rhetoric as some might say. Even GR had to finally admit that spending was out of control and started to try and reign it in.

It had been indicated for a long time now that we will see a tough 2024 - even before the election and a change of Government.

Hopefully we start to see some relief towards the back end of this year and not in to next year like some are saying.
 
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Hopefully we start to see some relief towards the back end of this year and not in to next year like some are saying.
I'm not optimistic. Improvement will be very slow. OCR will take time to come back, longer than we hope. Until interest rates drop a couple of percent ( if ) things will be tough and it will take time for businesses to be confident about investing.
 
I'm not optimistic. Improvement will be very slow. OCR will take time to come back, longer than we hope. Until interest rates drop a couple of percent ( if ) things will be tough and it will take time for businesses to be confident about investing.
I reckon the next GDP update (21 March) will have us firmly in a recession, and the next CPI update (Apr) will continue to track down

Based on those two things my guess is that it will strengthen the market's consensus of the OCR coming down. But the RBNZ will hold it a while longer just to make sure

If I was buying a house, I reckon there is a decent (say 9 month) window between now and the OCR coming down meaningfully where there are plenty of listings and gun shy buyers

I went through Westfield the other day. Plenty of people walking around. Not many carrying shopping bags full of purchases
 
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