General Election 2011

Who will you vote for?

  • Green

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • ACT

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Maori Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Unitede Future

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Progressive Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Mana Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Alliance

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Conservative Party of New Zealand

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • NZ Democrats

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kiwi Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Libertarianz

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • New Citizen Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • New Zealand First

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    9

Jesbass_old

Guest
No party vote for National from Labour supports will get Goldsmith in but more importantly knock over one of Nationals coalition partners. Goldsmith is going to get into parliment anyway due to his list ranking so by Labour voters in Epsom voting national they'll pretty much cancel there own vote out BUT will kill Banks and ACT and kill ACT as a party.

I'm confused. How would Labour supporters in Epsom voting for National in their party vote hurt National? Yes, Goldsmith would get in regardless of which party they vote for, but if they vote for National, then they'll help another National list MP get in.
 

Northern_Union

Guest
Your missing the point here Dave. If Labour voters vote for Goldsmith and National that will Goldsmith past Banks in terms of votes in Epsom. With no Epsom seat ACT is dead. No ACT means no coalition partner.
This is the reason we saw Key today have a "cup of tea" with Banks. Without saying as much Key was signaling National voters in Epson that it was ok to vote for ACT with there party vote while giving there candidate vote to Goldsmith.
You picking up what i'm putting down?
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
Your missing the point here Dave. If Labour voters vote for Goldsmith and National that will Goldsmith past Banks in terms of votes in Epsom. With no Epsom seat ACT is dead. No ACT means no coalition partner.
This is the reason we saw Key today have a "cup of tea" with Banks. Without saying as much Key was signaling National voters in Epson that it was ok to vote for ACT with there party vote while giving there candidate vote to Goldsmith.
You picking up what i'm putting down?

Yeah, but I don't see National requiring any coalition partners. (Even though I think they'll still pick one or two.)

Time will tell, of course.
 

Northern_Union

Guest
I think you're still missing my point on Epson Dave. Labour want to knock out ACT. Labour want to kill off a coalition partner for National thus giving them a better chance of getting a coalition government together. Stratigic voting is what i'm banging on about. Labour supporters voting for National knowing there own candidate has no chance of getting in. Labour supporters can get another bite of the cherry by party voting for Goldsmith knowing that in doing this their votes will push him past Banks. If Banks loses Epson then ACT dies. No ACT no coalition partner for National. No coalition partner for National means Labour are one step closer to getting back into power.
Also National need right leaning ballast to ballance out the left side of things for a start. You have Dunn and the Maori's on the left as coalition partners on the left but they need some on the right to level things up.
 

AC5_old

Guest
Just on a side note regarding Len Brown. He truly is a stand up guy. Myself and my old man (who is as strong a Key man as they come) have had a fair bit to do with Len through growing up in Manukau, as well as the Papatoetoe sports & community complex. I would unashamedly say Len is a stand up guy and a politician who sees the big picture. [/off soap box]
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
I think you're still missing my point on Epson Dave. Labour want to knock out ACT. Labour want to kill off a coalition partner for National thus giving them a better chance of getting a coalition government together. Stratigic voting is what i'm banging on about. Labour supporters voting for National knowing there own candidate has no chance of getting in. Labour supporters can get another bite of the cherry by party voting for Goldsmith knowing that in doing this their votes will push him past Banks. If Banks loses Epson then ACT dies. No ACT no coalition partner for National. No coalition partner for National means Labour are one step closer to getting back into power.
Also National need right leaning ballast to ballance out the left side of things for a start. You have Dunn and the Maori's on the left as coalition partners on the left but they need some on the right to level things up.

I didn't miss your point at all. I agreed with your last post. I do think that National will choose to form a coalition government, but I don't think National will need to form a coalition government.

I think they'll form a coalition government to play the long game. That's why they've been working so much with the Maori Party, and I think they will again. United Future will probably be in there, even though they're quite centrist. I'm not sure about the right, but then, when you don't actually need the numbers because you already have them...

Again, time will tell. I think Banks will win Epsom and National will have enough votes to not require any coalition partners anyway. I'm a novice when it comes to reading politics, though, so I'm as curious about my own predictions as I am about the result itself, lol.
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
Just on a side note regarding Len Brown. He truly is a stand up guy. Myself and my old man (who is as strong a Key man as they come) have had a fair bit to do with Len through growing up in Manukau, as well as the Papatoetoe sports & community complex. I would unashamedly say Len is a stand up guy and a politician who sees the big picture. [/off soap box]

I get that impression from him as well. I still wouldn't have voted for him, but I'd happily buy him a beer.
 

insulinboi_old

Guest
I never really understood the Epsom electorate, are you voting for the MP to represent you in Parliament? Or does it not matter as (#39 Paul Goldsmith) will be in Parliament anyway so you vote for Banks to get both? What if you think John Banks is an idiot, do you still vote for him?

Epsom is basically acts 'baby'. Mini National if you will. One would assume that they will gain anywhere between 1-3 MPs in parliment and they are dead set certainties to be nationals coalition partner.

If banks doesnt win, act gets no MP's, and the 1.5%-3% of die hard act supporters, will have their party vote wasted. If Banks wins, act will gain another 1-3 MPs for the coalition. Its strategic voting. In theory, every single national supporter should give their candidate vote for Banks. Im baffled that he isnt way ahead in the polls.
 

insulinboi_old

Guest
I'm confused. How would Labour supporters in Epsom voting for National in their party vote hurt National? Yes, Goldsmith would get in regardless of which party they vote for, but if they vote for National, then they'll help another National list MP get in.

Keith Locke (green MP) stood in Epsom last election. He actually voted for the national MP, to try and make sure Rodney Hide didnt win, to eliminate (like I said in my last post) the 1-3 extra MPs that were gained (turned out to be 5) from Hide winning.
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
Keith Locke (green MP) stood in Epsom last election. He actually voted for the national MP, to try and make sure Rodney Hide didnt win, to eliminate (like I said in my last post) the 1-3 extra MPs that were gained (turned out to be 5) from Hide winning.

Yeah. My confusion was around NU mentioning the party vote in his post, but I think he meant the candidate vote.
 

playdaball_old

Guest
I'm in Epsom electrate and the whole National / ACT voting thing doesn't sit right 8as in correctly) with people I know. Many can understand the strategic view but have an issue with Banks and especially Brash.

I know that Mr Banks so an old Mt Albert man but I don't think he played in the top side for 5 odd years NU. I said to my wife I may give BANKS my vote as he was a RL man and she couldn't understand what I meant.
 

Northern_Union

Guest
I'm 99% sure he played about 5 seasons for the Lions top side, PDB. Played as a winger, stand off and second rower. I can remember him talking about being chased across Carlaw park by the late great Munga Emery after he was instructed to belt Munga in the first scrum.
 

The 22 BEAST_old

Guest
National don't need ACT this election but have to keep them onside for the next one.
 

dingleberry_old

Guest
MMP is to much of the tail wagging the dog for my liking. STV maybe the way to go.

This is a bit of a misconception. MMP doesn't cause the "tail wagging the dog" - the need for coalition government does. Plus NZ's political environment amplifies the effect.

Coalition governments are common with STV (in Ireland, for example, they have coalition governments) and although rare, are also possible in FPP (The current Conservative/Liberal Dem coalition in England). Even the current Gilliard government is formed through various confidence and supply agreements.

In terms of "skew", MMP ranks quite highly in terms of accurately turning the share of votes into seats. STV has some hiccups with this, and FPP is so far off it should be a crime.

So, coalitions are going to be necessary in a fair electoral system - the two party system of yesteryear is slowly dying out. And, in certain situations, there's going to be "kingmakers", no matter what electoral system is used. In New Zealand though, extra power is given to our kingmakers through due to the fact that our government has extraordinary power with little constraint - we have a single chamber legislature, and our executive and legislature powers are not separated.

There are very few checks and balances in our system, but proportional voting is at least one of them. Coalitions, confidence and supply agreements and all of these sorts of things prevent a government from firing through whatever laws they want (as they are very much capable of doing).

And the king maker effect is also overstated. More common is the coalition party curse - Progressives, NZ First, Alliance, Act, United Future, Maori Party - all parties that either got the boot out of parliament or lost significant support after being involved in Coalition governments. Parties would be wise not to take advantage of their king maker status, because they will inevitably be punished by the voters in the next election.

Geoffrey Palmers series "Unbridled Power"/"Bridled Power" are good references on the large amount of power and haste of NZ's legislature and the effect MMP has on it. ("Bridled Power" is the updated edition that comments on MMP".)

Sorry for the novel :v
 

Northern_Union

Guest
Im voting for Winston and NZ first...farken hate Key and National

Yeah i'm voting for Winnie as well. He's as slippery customer and gets off side with the media with half truths dressed in angry sharp suits but he'll keep the likes Key in check.
 

dingleberry_old

Guest
here's one reason why National voters in epsom might not want to vote for Banks.

[YOUTUBE]xOAu5bjZBDk[/YOUTUBE]
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
Im voting for Winston and NZ first...farken hate Key and National

I'll be impressed if he manages to get back in. As I mentioned earlier, he's seen as a loose cannon, which is (possibly) why he has been losing support since the Christchurch earthquake.

He was polling strongly until the time of the earthquake, but has been going steadily down since then.

I know polls are hardly indicative of how the election will go, but it feels like he's trying to go out on his own terms.
 

playdaball_old

Guest
I'm 99% sure he played about 5 seasons for the Lions top side, PDB. Played as a winger, stand off and second rower. I can remember him talking about being chased across Carlaw park by the late great Munga Emery after he was instructed to belt Munga in the first scrum.

the Late Munga Emery didnt play in the 80s (as per your other timeline on Banks).
 

Northern_Union

Guest
the Late Munga Emery didnt play in the 80s (as per your other timeline on Banks).

I've heard Banks himself talk of being chased across Carlaw park by Emery. Banks captain coach at the time was a chap by the name of Dick if that helps you put a correct time frame on it.
 

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