General Coronavirus

[Mr Dragon]

I need a vaccine for this stupid Government

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

As of 11.59 p.m. 27th October 2021​

​

Vaccinations to 90% by DHB​

All Ethnicities​

	First doses	First doses %	First doses to 90%	Second doses	Second doses %	Second doses to 90%	Population
Northland	126,580	78%	18,608	101,394	63%	43,794	161,320
Waitemata	477,145	91%	0	410,477	78%	63,001	526,087
Auckland	396,425	94%	0	348,980	82%	32,582	423,958
Counties Manukau	425,796	88%	8,700	360,825	75%	73,671	482,773
Waikato	306,361	86%	15,097	248,743	70%	72,715	357,176
Lakes	75,016	79%	9,961	59,563	63%	25,414	94,419
Bay of Plenty	178,418	82%	16,829	140,261	65%	54,986	216,941
Tairawhiti	32,294	77%	5,474	25,934	62%	11,834	41,965
Taranaki	84,995	83%	6,937	64,699	63%	27,233	102,147
Hawkes Bay	121,407	83%	9,607	100,094	69%	30,920	145,571
MidCentral	130,001	85%	7,071	107,033	70%	30,039	152,302
Whanganui	45,595	80%	5,927	37,894	66%	13,628	57,247
Capital and Coast	248,425	92%	0	210,931	78%	33,126	271,174
Hutt Valley	113,578	87%	3,637	93,251	72%	23,964	130,239
Wairarapa	35,045	85%	2,239	29,159	70%	8,125	41,427
Nelson Marlborough	116,601	86%	5,568	100,969	74%	21,200	135,743
West Coast	22,281	80%	2,834	17,917	64%	7,198	27,906
Canterbury	431,211	89%	3,390	333,247	69%	101,354	482,890
South Canterbury	44,649	85%	2,677	37,775	72%	9,551	52,584
Southern	255,355	89%	3,858	216,761	75%	42,452	288,015
Overseas / Unknown	2,038	12%	13,418	1,617	9%	13,839	17,173
Total	3,669,216	87%	118,935	3,047,524	72%	740,627	4,209,057

First/second doses % are the number of first/second doses administered divided by the eligible population. First/second doses to 90% are the number of doses required to reach 90% of the eligible population. For these two measures, the national total may not be the sum of DHB measures.

Māori​

	First doses	First doses %	First doses to 90%	Second doses	Second doses %	Second doses to 90%	Population
Northland	33,302	66%	12,137	22,928	45%	22,511	50,488
Waitemata	32,375	79%	4,627	24,358	59%	12,644	41,113
Auckland	22,650	81%	2,363	17,476	63%	7,537	27,792
Counties Manukau	45,584	72%	11,560	32,219	51%	24,925	63,493
Waikato	49,518	71%	13,218	33,736	48%	29,000	69,707
Lakes	19,128	64%	7,948	13,284	44%	13,792	30,085
Bay of Plenty	30,048	63%	12,913	20,489	43%	22,472	47,734
Tairawhiti	13,127	66%	4,728	9,568	48%	8,287	19,839
Taranaki	10,614	67%	3,700	6,865	43%	7,449	15,904
Hawkes Bay	22,274	65%	8,379	15,810	46%	14,843	34,059
MidCentral	16,902	70%	4,900	12,107	50%	9,696	24,225
Whanganui	8,639	64%	3,522	6,371	47%	5,790	13,512
Capital and Coast	21,286	79%	2,984	16,225	60%	8,045	26,967
Hutt Valley	13,701	72%	3,510	9,928	52%	7,283	19,123
Wairarapa	4,324	69%	1,348	3,033	48%	2,639	6,302
Nelson Marlborough	7,765	69%	2,358	5,851	52%	4,272	11,248
West Coast	1,943	70%	546	1,380	50%	1,108	2,765
Canterbury	27,254	74%	6,018	18,731	51%	14,541	36,969
South Canterbury	2,357	69%	728	1,747	51%	1,338	3,428
Southern	17,431	74%	3,850	13,355	56%	7,926	23,646
Overseas / Unknown	181	7%	2,207	132	5%	2,256	2,653
Total	400,403	70%	113,544	285,593	50%	228,354	571,052

Pacific Peoples​

	First doses	First doses %	First doses to 90%	Second doses	Second doses %	Second doses to 90%	Population
Northland	2,344	80%	297	1,677	57%	964	2,934
Waitemata	31,767	85%	2,049	24,964	66%	8,852	37,573
Auckland	39,079	83%	3,100	30,984	66%	11,195	46,866
Counties Manukau	95,671	82%	9,177	75,414	65%	29,434	116,498
Waikato	9,043	85%	571	6,997	66%	2,617	10,682
Lakes	1,790	78%	267	1,375	60%	682	2,286
Bay of Plenty	3,974	>95%	0	3,012	82%	299	3,679
Tairawhiti	854	88%	14	650	67%	218	965
Taranaki	1,035	81%	108	759	60%	384	1,270
Hawkes Bay	5,020	>95%	0	4,058	81%	460	5,020
MidCentral	3,735	84%	286	2,836	63%	1,185	4,468
Whanganui	1,033	75%	210	801	58%	442	1,381
Capital and Coast	15,474	81%	1,785	12,282	64%	4,977	19,177
Hutt Valley	7,860	79%	1,045	6,120	62%	2,785	9,894
Wairarapa	680	81%	73	537	64%	216	837
Nelson Marlborough	3,586	>95%	0	3,115	>95%	0	2,115
West Coast	225	80%	29	171	61%	83	282
Canterbury	10,341	81%	1,122	7,625	60%	3,838	12,737
South Canterbury	767	92%	0	549	66%	204	837
Southern	5,493	91%	0	4,307	71%	1,121	6,031
Overseas / Unknown	338	29%	696	289	25%	745	1,149
Total	240,109	84%	17,904	188,522	66%	69,491	286,681

 

[Sup42]

Feels a lot like people are spreading deliberately.

Thanks for saying it.

While we don't have proof, an absence of proof is not a proof of absence.
If we think about it, given the tens of thousands who do not believe in masks, possibly hundreds of thousands, we would be incredibly naive to ignore the specter of willful spread.

There are personality types who...once they suffer a thing, find pleasure or comfort in seeing others suffer the same (this is very common, calm down if you read this and thought I was casting judgement lol).

True story though, most people in a threatening situation feel more secure when the threat is shared.

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

STEP 1:
“The first change we are making is halving the length of time international arrivals will need to stay in MIQ to seven days. Advice is this is the lowest risk change as the vast majority of border cases we pick up within the first seven days.

“The vast majority of COVID-19 cases are picked up within the first three days of MIQ. Positive cases from border arrivals are increasingly rare, at 2 or 3 per 1000, and there’s a 1 in 2000 rate of positive test results in MIQ after day seven. In addition, full vaccination will be required for all non-New Zealand travellers from 1 November.

“Arrivals will be tested on day 0/1, day 3, and day 6/7 testing, followed by a short period of self-isolation at home – around three days.

“A rapid antigen test and health checks will be carried out on day seven before a person leaves MIQ, and people will get a PCR test on day 9 of their home isolation and stay at home until the result comes back.

“This evolution of MIQ will initially free up more than 1500 rooms a month. These spaces will enable two things; they’ll allow rooms to continue to support the Auckland outbreak and some additional rooms will be available and will add to the vouchers being released next week.

STEP 2:
“The second stage of our plan will see New Zealand moving towards having more vaccinated people able to self-isolate at home instead of in MIQ.

“This option will be made available to increasing numbers of fully vaccinated travellers in the first quarter of 2022. However our priority at this stage is to safely transition to the new traffic light system first and bed that in before adding the additional risk of international arrivals immediately entering the community.

“When the COVID-19 Protection Framework is bedded in, 90 per cent of eligible New Zealanders will be fully vaccinated so we will have a higher level of confidence than we do right now of allowing international arrivals to go straight into the community.

“A phased approach also gives us time to evaluate the technology that’ll be used to monitor home isolation compliance in the business home isolation pilot, which starts at the end of this month.

“Fees, exemption and exception frameworks and isolate at home guidelines will be updated during the next three weeks. From 14 November, the self-isolation period for business travellers in the pilot will also be shortened to 10 days."

Step 3:

Moving towards more home isolation. This will happen in Q1 of 2022. They'll safely transition to the new traffic light system first.

Home isolation duration will depend on a number of factors.

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

Total Vaccinations​

	Vaccinations yesterday	Cumulative total	Eligible population vaccinated %	Total population vaccinated %	Vaccinated or booked	Eligible vaccinated or booked %
First dose	10,908	3,669,216	87%	73%	3,686,886	88%
Second dose	28,312	3,047,524	72%	61%	3,340,638	79%
Total doses	39,220	6,716,740

 

[Mr Dragon]

Thanks for saying it.

While we don't have proof, an absence of proof is not a proof of absence.
If we think about it, given the tens of thousands who do not believe in masks, possibly hundreds of thousands, we would be incredibly naive to ignore the specter of willful spread.

There are personality types who...once they suffer a thing, find pleasure or comfort in seeing others suffer the same (this is very common, calm down if you read this and thought I was casting judgement lol).

True story though, most people in a threatening situation feel more secure when the threat is shared.

We need it to spread, more deaths will get more people vaccinated, win win

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

Bloomfield said the case that travelled to Auckland for 5 days was a Māori female in her 50s, her partner is in his 40s and is NZ European.

The positive cases in Christchurch live in Bishopdale.

They visited two households on October 19 and 20 where people from other households were also present.

After those visits, they stayed home after becoming unwell.

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

There are no large exposure events linked to these cases, but they will be closely looking at the results of the contacts that have been identified.

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

Tomorrow will be 1 week exactly since the 90% DHB mandate came into effect so I will be doing a weekly follow up of how things are going. I know I did one yesterday but I just wanted to see if we were improving at all. I know we are, slowly. But it'll help those who can calculate how much faster we can get to the traffic light system.

 

[Mr Dragon]

Tomorrow will be 1 week exactly since the 90% DHB mandate came into effect so I will be doing a weekly follow up of how things are going. I know I did one yesterday but I just wanted to see if we were improving at all. I know we are, slowly. But it'll help those who can calculate how much faster we can get to the traffic light system.

I hope Cindy is paying you good money

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

It sounds like the Warriors may have to wait until half way during next year before they can even think about having a home game.

1st quarter is March, that's when NRL starts, so I predict maybe May, June?

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

I hope Cindy is paying you good money

It's stats, I like doing it for fun.

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

The Women's Cricket World Cup is due to be played here next year, I wonder how they will get around having teams get into the country? Or will they postpone again.

 

[Sup42]

We need it to spread, more deaths will get more people vaccinated, win win

Are you volunteering to die for the Vaccination roll out? Actually don't do that, as someone who is vaccinated your body will be canonised by the Antivaxxers as a Saint.

The Government are several steps ahead of you there. First they abandoned eradication.

Next they let people leave Auckland to relocate.

Then they let people meet up.

Then they let business have a pilot.

Then they opened schools for some.

Then they allowed 500 + people with Covid to stay home and sneak out to countdown.

Now they have allowed the Waikato spreaders to meet up.

So they have been covertly allowing a controlled spread of the virus for a long time without naming it.

And they have done it beautifully in terms of timing the vaccines, if you look at our cases, it is insane that we are so low this late in the piece.

Without wanting to be bitten for hubris, premature at that, right now.....New Zealand is leading the world yet again in how to deal with a Delta outbreak in the context of moving to living with the virus.

The vaccine wall is now a thing, it is controlling the scale of the outbreak and this country is the first in the world to do it.

Long road ahead and unfortunately a lot of losers are determined to undo our gains by tipping the balance in favour of the virus because they think the Govt is the enemy and not Covid.

There is one thing New Zealanders are really poor at understanding, and that is, the fact that some areas and demographics will need special protection while this controlled spread is a thing...because they do not have the vaccine wall...which means they will die at unacceptable rates and completely trash health care.

This is why there are by DHB traffic lights and why our roll out target is so high, because if it we do not let the dummies win, we are currently proving we could win this thing.

 

[Mr Dragon]

It's stats, I like doing it for fun.

Great to see someone who still has fun, i thought fun was banned

 

[Sup42]

Great to see someone who still has fun, i thought fun was banned

oh because Judith Collins Govt screams fun.

 

[Geoff Public]

Are you volunteering to die for the Vaccination roll out? Actually don't do that, as someone who is vaccinated your body will be canonised by the Antivaxxers as a Saint.

The Government are several steps ahead of you there. First they abandoned eradication.

Next they let people leave Auckland to relocate.

Then they let people meet up.

Then they let business have a pilot.

Then they opened schools for some.

Then they allowed 500 + people with Covid to stay home and sneak out to countdown.

Now they have allowed the Waikato spreaders to meet up.

So they have been covertly allowing a controlled spread of the virus for a long time without naming it.

And they have done it beautifully in terms of timing the vaccines, if you look at our cases, it is insane that we are so low this late in the piece.

Without wanting to be bitten for hubris, premature at that, right now.....New Zealand is leading the world yet again in how to deal with a Delta outbreak in the context of moving to living with the virus.

The vaccine wall is now a thing, it is controlling the scale of the outbreak and this country is the first in the world to do it.

Long road ahead and unfortunately a lot of losers are determined to undo our gains by tipping the balance in favour of the virus because they think the Govt is the enemy and not Covid.

There is one thing New Zealanders are really poor at understanding, and that is, the fact that some areas and demographics will need special protection while this controlled spread is a thing...because they do not have the vaccine wall...which means they will die at unacceptable rates and completely trash health care.

This is why there are by DHB traffic lights and why our roll out target is so high, because if it we do not let the dummies win, we are currently proving we could win this thing.

The Government hasn't been ahead of anything for a long time.
If you mean by special protection the unvacinated are unable to attend gatherings for any purpose, I agree with you.

 

[dean]

I need a vaccine for this stupid Government

You'll need a booster every month as well.

 

[Mr Brownstone]

It's stats, I like doing it for fun.

I think I’ve asked you this before however do you play Supercoach? If not then I think you should, it’s heaven for any stats geek, I’m totally addicted. Much more fun than compiling Covid data

 

[Sup42]

By the way guys, Australia’s Doherty institute did the modelling and made the plan for Australia to open up.

The models were based on 200 cases of Covid 19 per day.

In this ideal world, the Doherty institute modelled Australia’s numbers based off 80% of the eligible population being vaccinated.

As we have seen, after hitting peaks in the thousands, Australia has begun to open.

At the same time, New Zealand has been racing Australia for vaccine uptake, since the arrival of NSW covid.

So in real terms, we are at 50% threat of what Australian virologists had modelled as a workable Covid picture, and we are mirroring Victoria in vaccine rates which are rising well beyond the working Doherty total of 80% eligible.

Now it pays to remember that our hospital capacity is much poorer, so this is where our models of safety depart.

Last night I was lying awake in bed, thinking about the characteristics of this outbreak. I suffer from insomnia, it is a side effect of my job, people trying to kill or bash you or both for decades will slightly impact your sleep patterns.

But like everything in life, there is always a silver lining, and many insomniacs will tell you that their best thinking is done late at night.

I digress, go back to the start, when after nine days we were on a path to 80 + cases.

With an R naught of 5-6 we would have hit four hundred ten days later.....

400.

Think about where we are now. Think about how 400 becomes 2000 thanks to an R naught after only ten short days more.

Think about how unvaccinated we were, and how well vaccinated we are now.

It looks like we might have outrun the wave every single country in the world has been hit by in our situation.

Now we need people to double down. Right now we could start to win.

Case numbers are staying under that magic Doherty 200.

We watch with wonder....but I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt, that Pfizer vaccine is a Covid killer when used by all.