Beastmode

Just another day in paradise
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This is written by somebody with more than half a brain.

There is no earthly reason to believe that a Chinese person coming here from China is more likely to bring the disease than a Kiwi returning from that country: it is simply discrimination.

• Prof Stuart McCutcheon is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Auckland.

Well I’d say a kiwi returning from that region is less likely to have drank bat soup... it is discrimination, but it’s cause and effect .... they have literally fucked up the world....

The question is, will they change their behaviour for the better or will they return to bad habits once this is over?
 
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This is written by somebody with more than half a brain.

Stuart McCutcheon: Coronavirus travel bans are discrimination

COMMENT

I suggest the Government's restriction on travellers from China is a discriminatory, political decision that isn't justified by public health considerations. What is the evidence for my claim?

The World Health Organisation (WHO) continues to advise against travel bans for the control of infectious diseases like Ebola, influenza, Sars and Covid-19 (coronavirus). WHO notes that, at the very best, travel bans temporarily delay the onset of outbreaks.

However, travel bans also encourage determined travellers to hide their recent movements – anecdotally, people are already arriving here from China via third countries.


Without accurate travel histories, immigration officials find it difficult to detect travel from high-risk countries. This compromises the education, self-isolation, and track-and-trace procedures underpinning modern public health responses.

Furthermore, travel bans encourage countries to under-report the number of people affected by an outbreak. By so doing these countries can reduce the risks to their economy posed by travel bans and retain access to international expertise, medicines and protective equipment.

Lastly, travel bans increase the perceived threat of a disease and they heighten discrimination and stigmatisation.

Consider how the other 194 member-states of WHO have responded to Covid-19. Only 41 have introduced travel bans in response to the virus. Many of these travel restrictions are narrowly targeted on Hubei province, where the virus originated, rather than the whole of China.

Fourteen of the 41 members that have introduced travel bans are "small island developing states" with fledgling health systems, such as those in the Caribbean and Pacific. Others are countries led by populist leaders, such as Australia and the USA.

In contrast, the UK, Canada and Europe (except Poland) are among a large majority of WHO member states that have chosen to protect their people from Covid-19 by employing the public health strategies recommended by WHO rather than by travel restrictions. For example, the EU Commissioner for Health said the Commission welcomed "keeping the borders open" across the EU instead of "resorting to what could be considered disproportionate and inefficient measures".
The UK Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, said: "Overreaction has its costs too, economic and social, and so we have to keep the public safe, but we also need to act in a way that's proportionate."

The New Zealand Government has followed Australia on every step of this unfortunate journey. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison imposed travel restrictions from China on Saturday, February 1. The two Australasian prime ministers reportedly spoke on "multiple occasions" that same weekend and on Sunday, February 2, the New Zealand Prime Minister announced that the Cabinet had imposed travel restrictions on travellers from China.

Since then, the New Zealand extensions of the ban have been in lockstep with decisions by Australia.

Finally, the public health argument is illogical. Our Government has permitted more than 9000 New Zealand citizens, permanent residents, Australians and their dependents to return from China, with suitable self-isolation, in the past six weeks.

Not one of them has developed the disease, which is not surprising given that the incidence of coronavirus is less than 1 in 12,000 outside Hubei. But, at the same time, our Government has banned other visitors from China, most of whom (including 12,000 students) are, unsurprisingly, Chinese.


There is no earthly reason to believe that a Chinese person coming here from China is more likely to bring the disease than a Kiwi returning from that country: it is simply discrimination.

• Prof Stuart McCutcheon is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Auckland.
I agree we are just slowing down this thing but as we are on islands we have a better chance than most of reducing the impact. With a 3+% mortality rate, if it went rampant and infected the entire country (NZ) that would be 100,000+ people dead. There could be a case for closing the entire border rather than just badly affected countries 🤔

What is concerning is that this thing kills 3% of people it infects and we haven’t been able to contain it. I suspect there are plenty of third world countries now where this thing is rampant but not reported. Imagine if it killed 10+% like Mers and was this contagious. How would we respond?
 

Beastmode

Just another day in paradise
Contributor
I think you’re screwed either way because this virus doesn’t need a host to move around ( or so I read)

Everything is made in China, so closing the borders to tourist yet still importing goods will win you the battle but lose you the war...
 
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Rizzah

Stop Being Shit
Contributor
What is concerning is that this thing kills 3% of people it infects and we haven’t been able to contain it.
3% is skewed - it's the average.
if you're aged 10 - 49 your chances of death are minimal (0.2% - 0.4%).
If you are immune compromised and/or topping out the life expectancy zone you are greatly at risk (14.8%).

No fatalities if your under 9, so far.

here's a better look.

DEATH RATE by age.
all cases
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

For perspective, the seasonal flu has killed approx 94,000 people so far this year.
 

bruce

Contributor
For perspective, the seasonal flu has killed approx 94,000 people so far this year.
353 people killed on NZ roads
Well I’d say a kiwi returning from that region is less likely to have drank bat soup... it is discrimination, but it’s cause and effect .... they have literally fucked up the world....last year. WTF is going to go into self imposed quarantine for that?

The question is, will they change their behaviour for the better or will they return to bad habits once this is over?
I know lots of Chinese, never met one who has drunk bat soup. Just saying like.
 
The thing about this years version of SARS is the truly serious damage to peoples livelihoods etc this social media frenzy has whipped up. FFS kicking someone off a bus for coughing or attacking someone over toilet paper is just fucked in the head. Combine that with the willingness to believe any nut job on social media with an opinion based on no facts. Two weeks ago one of our staff said, taking St Johns wort, would not only protect you from getting it, it could also cure it. When I asked where he heard that, he said on a website for some antivax nut job he follows. This guy is one of our resident hippies. I asked on how many people and for how long did said lunatic do his research for. The answer involved a blank stare and a shoulder shrug, but he was still willing to believe it.
All us idiots are allowed opinions, but dangerous idiots shouldn't have access to the internet when their unsupported beliefs potentially risk lives.
 
My calculator is broken, how many dead is 3% of the 5 people affected in NZ? Taking into account the only person sick enough to be hospitalised in NZ has been sent home and almost completely over it. Using that math we only need another 95 people to get sick to potentially get a fatality, I wonder how many will die in a car crash before we hit the target. Or better still how many will die in a car crash by this time next week.
I agree with your sentiment and hope we can keep it under control.

But as China found out and Italy is now discovering, once it’s out of control, you cant just isolate a few people and stop it. China had to use draconian methods to isolate their population and 2 months later they are still in lock down. Italy were slow to quarantine and it’s got away in them.

If this starts running rampant, especially in 3rd world counties, we have exactly the same chance of containing it as with the common flu - we can’t. Even if we do a good job at home, potentially every plane from overseas will be bringing in carriers.

If it spreads as easily as the common Flu but is over 10x more deadly (approx 0.25 vs 3.8? fatality rate), multiply the common flu death numbers by 10 and the numbers are huge. Then they suspect you can re-catch it so this thing could go around like the flu, causing havoc every year.

5 people in NZ with none dead is nothing to worry about at the moment. Sure lots more currently die of other things. But it’s the effect of this thing if it establishes that could make it the number 1 cause of death by far, 1000s every week vs the 10 in car crashes.

No need to panic but treat this with respect and don’t let it get a hold in our country.
 
I agree with your sentiment and hope we can keep it under control.

But as China found out and Italy is now discovering, once it’s out of control, you cant just isolate a few people and stop it. China had to use draconian methods to isolate their population and 2 months later they are still in lock down. Italy were slow to quarantine and it’s got away in them.

If this starts running rampant, especially in 3rd world counties, we have exactly the same chance of containing it as with the common flu - we can’t. Even if we do a good job at home, potentially every plane from overseas will be bringing in carriers.

If it spreads as easily as the common Flu but is over 10x more deadly (approx 0.25 vs 3.8? fatality rate), multiply the common flu death numbers by 10 and the numbers are huge. Then they suspect you can re-catch it so this thing could go around like the flu, causing havoc every year.

5 people in NZ with none dead is nothing to worry about at the moment. Sure lots more currently die of other things. But it’s the effect of this thing if it establishes that could make it the number 1 cause of death by far, 1000s every week vs the 10 in car crashes.

No need to panic but treat this with respect and don’t let it get a hold in our country.

Took our cat to the vet last week and was talking to him about this. He had studied micro biology and genetics before changing to do veterinarian studies. He says it’s only a mater of if not when we have a major outbreak here and, in his opinion, the MOH current approach is totally wrong. He would remove all restrictions and hope it goes through NZ before the normal flu season strikes.

He said every year, our health system can’t cope with just the flu season without adding Coronavirus into the mix.
 

bruce

Contributor
I agree with your sentiment and hope we can keep it under control.

But as China found out and Italy is now discovering, once it’s out of control, you cant just isolate a few people and stop it. China had to use draconian methods to isolate their population and 2 months later they are still in lock down. Italy were slow to quarantine and it’s got away in them.

If this starts running rampant, especially in 3rd world counties, we have exactly the same chance of containing it as with the common flu - we can’t. Even if we do a good job at home, potentially every plane from overseas will be bringing in carriers.

If it spreads as easily as the common Flu but is over 10x more deadly (approx 0.25 vs 3.8? fatality rate), multiply the common flu death numbers by 10 and the numbers are huge. Then they suspect you can re-catch it so this thing could go around like the flu, causing havoc every year.

5 people in NZ with none dead is nothing to worry about at the moment. Sure lots more currently die of other things. But it’s the effect of this thing if it establishes that could make it the number 1 cause of death by far, 1000s every week vs the 10 in car crashes.

No need to panic but treat this with respect and don’t let it get a hold in our country.
From a guy with more than half a brain Professor McCutcheon of Auckland University:
The World Health Organisation (WHO) continues to advise against travel bans for the control of infectious diseases like Ebola, influenza, Sars and Covid-19 (coronavirus). WHO notes that, at the very best, travel bans temporarily delay the onset of outbreaks.
So do some of you fuckers want the world to go broke in sympathy for a few people getting the bloody flu later rather than sooner? It is that simple.
 
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From a guy with more than half a brain Professor McCutcheon of Auckland University:
My old man had a saying, “Follow the money”..... long before Hollywood changed it to “Show me the money”. The thing about McCutcheon is he works for an institution which is losing thousands of dollars each week from students unable to enter NZ. Pretty sure his opinion would be coloured by that.
 

Beastmode

Just another day in paradise
Contributor
He said every year, our health system can’t cope with just the flu season without adding Coronavirus into the mix.

THIS

It’s not the lives that are lost, that % is small

It’s the utter chaos it will bring to our health system that is the real risk

The collapse of people not being able to get timely treatment because our hospitals are flooded with coronavirus cases will lead to outright pandemonium followed by riots and civil unrest....

That’s what scares me the most.. people will act irrationally if the lives of their love ones are at stake...
 
So do some of you fuckers want the world to go broke in sympathy for a few people getting the bloody flu later rather than sooner? It is that simple.
’Internationally, epidemiologists had predicted that countries could see infection rates of between 40 and 60 per cent of their total populations if the virus was not controlled, Baker said.

Dr Samantha Murton earlier this week told Newshub that estimates showed up to 50 per cent of New Zealand's population could contract the virus.’

Maths for above: 3% of (5m x 50%)= 75,000 dead

6% of cases are hospital admissions = 150,000 people. Hospital beds in NZ 14,000 (total beds not excess capacity)
 

bruce

Contributor
My old man had a saying, “Follow the money”..... long before Hollywood changed it to “Show me the money”. The thing about McCutcheon is he works for an institution which is losing thousands of dollars each week from students unable to enter NZ. Pretty sure his opinion would be coloured by that.
That is true Mike, but he is also a very conservative and intelligent person. What he says about people getting through the back door from China I know to be true. I know somebody who did, I talk to the person often and don't shriek in fear.

It is going to come, when not if, it is going to cause massive problems in the health system, massive. Heyzeuss knows what will do to the aged care industry as just one example. Anybody wanting elective surgery can forget it.

My question is why fuck the economy as well? Just let it come and get it over with before winter, because if it lands in winter, which seems probably now there is going to be hell to pay until it burns itself out.

As he also points out we are being led down the path by those wanker politicians in Australia.
 

bruce

Contributor
China built one new hospital in ten days..
Now they don't need it anymore.
’Internationally, epidemiologists had predicted that countries could see infection rates of between 40 and 60 per cent of their total populations if the virus was not controlled, Baker said.

Dr Samantha Murton earlier this week told Newshub that estimates showed up to 50 per cent of New Zealand's population could contract the virus.’

Maths for above: 3% of (5m x 50%)= 75,000 dead

6% of cases are hospital admissions = 150,000 people. Hospital beds in NZ 14,000 (total beds not excess capacity)
Also, and more to the point, where are the health workers going to come from? I would much rather hear about plans to take care of people at home.
 
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That is true Mike, but he is also a very conservative and intelligent person. What he says about people getting through the back door from China I know to be true. I know somebody who did, I talk to the person often and don't shriek in fear.

It is going to come, when not if, it is going to cause massive problems in the health system, massive. Heyzeuss knows what will do to the aged care industry as just one example. Anybody wanting elective surgery can forget it.

My question is why fuck the economy as well? Just let it come and get it over with before winter, because if it lands in winter, which seems probably now there is going to be hell to pay until it burns itself out.

As he also points out we are being led down the path by those wanker politicians in Australia.
Spreading those 150k hospital admissions over 2 years is better than over 3 months. Delay as much as possible And people will have a chance. Stop the spread as much as possible and we buy time for a vaccine.

There is a reason flu season is winter. The lower temperature allows the virus to live longer outside the body on surfaces (up to twice as long) which enables the virus to thrive in winter. It will hit at its strongest this winter.
 

bruce

Contributor
Spreading those 150k hospital admissions over 2 years is better than over 3 months. Delay as much as possible And people will have a chance. Stop the spread as much as possible and we buy time for a vaccine.

There is a reason flu season is winter. The lower temperature allows the virus to live longer outside the body on surfaces (up to twice as long) which enables the virus to thrive in winter. It will hit at its strongest this winter.
Yes it is going to be a massive problem, so let's everybody panic, because that is really going to help.
 
Using that math we only need another 95 people to get sick to potentially get a fatality, I wonder how many will die in a car crash before we hit the target. Or better still how many will die in a car crash by this time next week.
‘Nearly 200 people in Italy have died in 24 hours as cases of coronavirus in the country continue to balloon there and throughout Europe’

And this thing is just getting started in Italy. How many died in car crashes yesterday?
 
‘Nearly 200 people in Italy have died in 24 hours as cases of coronavirus in the country continue to balloon there and throughout Europe’

And this thing is just getting started in Italy. How many died in car crashes yesterday?
Car crashes are not infectious so not really a relevant comparison. My wife is Italian so we are kept up with what is happening daily. Italy already had a pretty fucked economy and political instability. However, they do have a decent health service. To close down the country and economy like they have means the problem is very serious. There death rate is about twice that of China which just doesn't add up.
I think this is a very infectious virus, once it gets a hold it could infect over half the population. I suspect our leaders are aware of this , hence some of the extreme measures taken while at the same time trying to avoid panic.
I am concerned about the economic impact on workers and businesses.