General 24 Points to Make the Top Eight?

westie stylz_old

Guest
Cleary has come out and said that you need 28 points to be sure but I think he is trying to keep the team focused because I doubt very much that that will happen. In fact its almost a mathematically impossibility that that many sides can get up to 28 and beyond.

What needs to be taken into consideration is that there is no second bye this year so every team in the comp is going to finish on two less points than usual.

Since the comp went to 26 rounds:
In 2005 and 2006 teams that got 28 points made it. In 2004, the Raiders made it with 26 points. 28 points in 2003, and 25 points in 2002 thanks to the Bulldogs debacle.

But as I say, take away two free points from every team and the qualifying marks counting backwards from 2007 are: 26, 26, 24, 26, 23.

Given the Warriors have a good for and against record they will absolutely make it with 26 points and looking at the draw could make it with 24.

There is now an established top 8 with either proven performers or else form sides. The chasing pack just doesn't look like they have the goods to mount a serious assault on the top half of the ladder.

Look at this weekend. The Knights are on 18 points as are the Rabbitohs and Titans. If we beat the Knights they will need 3 wins from 5 just to get to 24 points and with a horrible for and against record (-150). The Rabbitohs (-8) will play the Titans (-80) this weekend so one of them will end up needing 3 from 5 as well. That will leave the winner needing to win 2 from 5 to get to 24 points. I'm picking the Rabbitohs to win it and be left as the only serious threat to the top 8. They have a reasonable run home with games against the Panthers, Dragons, Sea Eagles, Tigers and Roosters. Similar to the Warriors run. They should win three but they could easily not manage that.

So that means that a win over the Knights and maybe just one from their last 5 could possibly be good enough. 2 from 5 would bank it IMO. It would be nice if they seal their spot in 3 weeks time and then look to make the top 4/5. Coming 5th should guarantee a second week playoff spot even if they lost in week one.
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
I like the amount of thought you've obviously put into your post, westie. :)

Keep in mind, though, that the club are aiming for a top four spot, at least privately, if not publicly, so that may be motivating Cleary's comments.
 

westie stylz_old

Guest
You wanna know what's funny?

For a laugh I went through the NRL predictor and selected the lower ranked team to win every single game.

The Warriors came dead last haha. Probably sums up how they have the easiest run home of any side in the competition.
 

westie stylz_old

Guest
Oh, and if the upsets continued through the playoffs the Dragons would beat the Knights in the grand final!

Somehow I just can't see it.
 

Jesbass_old

Guest
You wanna know what's funny?

For a laugh I went through the NRL predictor and selected the lower ranked team to win every single game.

The Warriors came dead last haha. Probably sums up how they have the easiest run home of any side in the competition.

Lol, that's awesome. Unless it actually happens, lol.
 

PB_old

Guest
Good post, Westie. DC, Random, and co are ominously silent on the Warriors now I note.

Let's be optimistic and go for 5 from 5. If we've won the matches against the Knights, Roosters, Titans, and Raiders, by the time we hit the Eagles at home we should have their measure, and the Panthers away shouldn't be an issue.

If we come a cropper I think it's more likely to be the Roosters. With Fittler at the helm he'll have them motivated for it (I don't think he respects the Warriors really). The Sea Eagles, form Dependant, are the other possible drop. If both of those happen, as you say, we'll still make the semis.



(Edited as spelling mistakes were staring at me)
 
Last edited by a moderator:

westie stylz_old

Guest
I think you mean LB and random there PB. DC is a hell Warriors fan. Enough of the letters though...

A million and one things can happen between now and the end of Round 25 but you'd start to expect just a few less upsets.

It's quite possible that in 3 weeks time we could have a very distinct gap between the top 8 and those left behind.

The likes of the Roosters and Dragons have left their run a bit too late realistically and the Knights and Titans look like pretenders rather than contenders expecially given the Titans injuries. If they had had a fit team they could have threatened.

The Rabbitohs have a great defence but unfortunately for them they need to score more points. They could get to about 26 points but I see one slip up from them ruining their season.
 

Northern_Union

Guest
I get our boys finishing 5th after dropping games to the Raiders and Sea Eagles through the predictor.

Wheres everyone else get them finishing?
 

PB_old

Guest
I think you mean LB and random there PB. DC is a hell Warriors fan. Enough of the letters though...

A million and one things can happen between now and the end of Round 25 but you'd start to expect just a few less upsets.

It's quite possible that in 3 weeks time we could have a very distinct gap between the top 8 and those left behind.

The likes of the Roosters and Dragons have left their run a bit too late realistically and the Knights and Titans look like pretenders rather than contenders expecially given the Titans injuries. If they had had a fit team they could have threatened.

The Rabbitohs have a great defence but unfortunately for them they need to score more points. They could get to about 26 points but I see one slip up from them ruining their season.

Ahh, LB. That's right, DC was giving them grief. I apologise for besmirching his fandom.

I think you're right and we should be looking at it from a "how high can we go" perspective rather than a "how can we stay in the 8" one.

Hope the Rabbits make it. I'll get to wear two jersey for the Semis.
 

westie stylz_old

Guest
Well, at least we are getting into a position now where even a loss and we will still be in the top 8 come next week.

I can't see the Knights beating us unless we play like a bunch of idiots. I won't tempt fate and go though. Last time we were going well and I went along it was the game against the Sharks and the less said about that game the better except that it was quite possibly the worst game of professional league I've ever seen in my life.
 

PB_old

Guest
Well, at least we are getting into a position now where even a loss and we will still be in the top 8 come next week.

I can't see the Knights beating us unless we play like a bunch of idiots. I won't tempt fate and go though. Last time we were going well and I went along it was the game against the Sharks and the less said about that game the better except that it was quite possibly the worst game of professional league I've ever seen in my life.

I used to feel jinxed too, but I went to the Broncos and Dragons games and we won so, meh, I'm off to the Knights.
 

westie stylz_old

Guest
The Warriors have only ever won about 6 or 7 games when I've gone. They would have lost twice that many that I've been at. Of course I was overseas for the 'glory days'.

Our all time record is something like 142 wins and 160 losses or therabouts.

Be nice to actually get them level in a few years. I seem to recall very briefly in about 2003 we got level but then with the shocker seasons it ballooned back out.
 

Skinny_Ravs82

Guest
Mmmm good thinking Westie very good. But I do feel with the way the compeition is broken up lately, win huge one week lose big the next 24 is a bit of walking borderline. I do hope you are right and that is all we need but I'm just not sure
 

Skinny_Ravs82

Guest
In saying that, I think these remaining games are wins we can get and get well even Manly if we play well. It is there to win and we'd only lose it if we let ourselves
 

Viking_old

Guest
We'll take Manly, they only beat us by 3 at Brookvale and we're a much better team now. Raiders and Roosters could be spoilers though.
 

cablenathan_old

Guest
I have the Warriors finishing fourth on the table, and either us or Manly facing Melbourne in the GF
 

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