Recruitment 2022 Warriors Recruitment Discussion

[Deano]

Could Vailea be our future fullback?

 

[Toookey]

I have taken
1) First year uni stats
2) Third year intermediate stats
3) fourth year management science
4) Market research

And have worked as a numerical analyst for a Forbes Global 2000 company

Identifying outliers or exceptions does not mean there isn't a correlation. In field data most correlations only hold true 60 to 70% of the time and there will always be a very large number of exceptions.
The analyst creates a scatter gram and using statistical functions creates a line of best fit. Some data points will be far away from the line of best fit.

Haha mate I call your bluff. Are you saying that weight directly correlates to meters gained in the NRL? I don't claim to have as much knowledge as you and will happily stand corrected, but I do not believe that to be the case. I posted a slightly more thorough post a few months ago (maybe 6-8 names?), but there are many props who don't fit that mould and make more, or less meters. Who you play for is almost as big a factor, as a Penrith prop is going to have more time with ball in hand as a Tigers or Warriors prop. Amount of minutes is also key too. I would guess weight would be one of the least important factors to making meters (at a glance)

 

[DavidMcKay1974]

According to NRL.com Tom Ale is only signed until 2023, I watched him last night on limited minutes, and that guy is good, he gets through the tackles way easier than some of the others do. We need to sign this guy for another 2-3 years. Otherwise he's going to be another one who gets away.

 

[warriorsfan92]

Update: Tito Harris appears to have signed with nz sevens and chiefs. He’ll be another one lost. He’s seriously fucking good.

 

[Toookey]

According to NRL.com Tom Ale is only signed until 2023, I watched him last night on limited minutes, and that guy is good, he gets through the tackles way easier than some of the others do. We need to sign this guy for another 2-3 years. Otherwise he's going to be another one who gets away.

Yeah I agree mate. Also, he seems to make post contact meters with ease, as opposed to someone like Bunty. Imo he started to get gassed towards the end of the game, but that's going to happen to someone who has only played 15 min max previously. If we use him right, and build him up (maybe 10-12 games next year and give him 10 min before half time and 12 min after half time) I think we could have a pretty top talent on our hands

 

[Tony Martin]

Update: Tito Harris appears to have signed with nz sevens and chiefs. He’ll be another one lost. He’s seriously fucking good.

Damn. Where did you hear or see this?

 

[Deano]

Update: Tito Harris appears to have signed with nz sevens and chiefs. He’ll be another one lost. He’s seriously fucking good.

oh come on…

 

[Toookey]

As the Warriors love overloading ourselves with back rowers, I can't believe no one's spoken about Jeramiah Nanai yet. Fuck me, absolute superstar and we probably won't get near him, but born in the dirty west (Auckland), are we a chance?
Absolute break out year and will likely have 2nd year syndrome next year, but sheeze he's only 19. I would be happy to lose Curran if we signed him (one of a very few backrowers I'd be willing to give up Curran for).
Off contract for 2024 so can negotiate from November

 

[AlexM]

According to NRL.com Tom Ale is only signed until 2023, I watched him last night on limited minutes, and that guy is good, he gets through the tackles way easier than some of the others do. We need to sign this guy for another 2-3 years. Otherwise he's going to be another one who gets away.

I'll agree he did look good, but you'd want to see a bit more imo before throwing 3 years at him. Re. Katoa

 

[Wrighty]

Haha mate I call your bluff. Are you saying that weight directly correlates to meters gained in the NRL? I don't claim to have as much knowledge as you and will happily stand corrected, but I do not believe that to be the case. I posted a slightly more thorough post a few months ago (maybe 6-8 names?), but there are many props who don't fit that mould and make more, or less meters. Who you play for is almost as big a factor, as a Penrith prop is going to have more time with ball in hand as a Tigers or Warriors prop. Amount of minutes is also key too. I would guess weight would be one of the least important factors to making meters (at a glance)

A correlation is not a 1:1 perfect correlation. Other factors also matter and over ride weight. It doesn't mean that weight isn't correlated just because it isn't a dominant factor in all circumstances.
Correlation means there is a relationship between two variables that holds some of the time but not all the time.

 

[Cces]

Jackson Frei played on the left edge for Redcliffe yesterday & bagged himself another try in their win. Does anyone know if it's a club directive for him to play Second Row or are Redcliffe just fitting him in where it suits them best?

 

[J_P]

You mean to say you have now joined the Kosi Posse.

As long as you don't pronounce it like the Aussie commentators were a week or 2 back...
Seemed to have improved this week.

 

[geepee]

Update: Tito Harris appears to have signed with nz sevens and chiefs. He’ll be another one lost. He’s seriously fucking good.

wont be the only one in the warriors jnrs to go to sevens / rugby

 

[Toookey]

A correlation is not a 1:1 perfect correlation. Other factors also matter and over ride weight. It doesn't mean that weight isn't correlated just because it isn't a dominant factor in all circumstances.
Correlation means there is a relationship between two variables that holds some of the time but not all the time.

Hmm I think you're backtracking a wee bit. I was saying weight does not to be a significant factor in how good a prop is, where you said there is a correlation that suggests it is. Of course there's a small correlation, but imo as long as your between 104-125kg I don't think weight dictates anything. Heres a list of props meters per game and their weight. Maybe with your experience in stats you can pull more out than I can, but weight seems to be very random. Note - all players average over 37 minutes a game except for T Sipley

P Haas 164.3 117kg
J Tapine 160.3 106kg
D Klemmer 156.1 116kg
Big Tino 154.7 107kg
Addin Fonua-Blake 153.4 123kg
RFG 148 115kg
Fisher Harris 143.2 104kg
Tom Burgess 140.6 120kg
Jnr Paulo 140.4 123kg
Paul Vaughan 134.3 110kg
T Tatola 133.6 114kg
Josh Aloiai 130.9 106kg
JWH 128.9 116kg
NAS 123.2 115kg
Reuben Cotter 123.1 95kg
Josh Pap 122.8 119kg
D Saifiti 118.8 121kg
Jordan McLean 115.5 118kg
Flegler 112.3 110kg
M Taupau 104.5 112kg
Lindsay Collins 98.8 106kg
Bunty 85.2 113kg
T Sipley - 73.1 (30 min average) 120kg
Aaron Woods 69.9 112kg
Emre Guler 66.6 112kg

 

[Wrighty]

Hmm I think you're backtracking a wee bit. I was saying weight does not to be a significant factor in how good a prop is, where you said there is a correlation that suggests it is. Of course there's a small correlation, but imo as long as your between 104-125kg I don't think weight dictates anything. Heres a list of props meters per game and their weight. Maybe with your experience in stats you can pull more out than I can, but weight seems to be very random. Note - all players average over 37 minutes a game except for T Sipley

P Haas 164.3 117kg
J Tapine 160.3 106kg
D Klemmer 156.1 116kg
Big Tino 154.7 107kg
Addin Fonua-Blake 153.4 123kg
RFG 148 115kg
Fisher Harris 143.2 104kg
Tom Burgess 140.6 120kg
Jnr Paulo 140.4 123kg
Paul Vaughan 134.3 110kg
T Tatola 133.6 114kg
Josh Aloiai 130.9 106kg
JWH 128.9 116kg
NAS 123.2 115kg
Reuben Cotter 123.1 95kg
Josh Pap 122.8 119kg
D Saifiti 118.8 121kg
Jordan McLean 115.5 118kg
Flegler 112.3 110kg
M Taupau 104.5 112kg
Lindsay Collins 98.8 106kg
Bunty 85.2 113kg
T Sipley - 73.1 (30 min average) 120kg
Aaron Woods 69.9 112kg
Emre Guler 66.6 112kg

I will run those numbers to test for a statistical correlation
I am not back tracking
I thought of another explanation
Ceterus Perebus means all other factors equal or constant
I am saying weight it is a factor if you hold the other factors constant
Thanks for pulling that data I will run it in a few hours
Just have to go to church first
I like data so this will be a treat to analyse

 

[Toookey]

I will run those numbers to test for a statistical correlation
I am not back tracking
I thought of another explanation
Ceterus Perebus means all other factors equal or constant
I am saying weight it is a factor if you hold the other factors constant
Thanks for pulling that data I will run it in a few hours
Just have to go to church first
I like data so this will be a treat to analyse

Took me a good 35 minutes this morning lol so I'm glad you can make something of it

 

[Wrighty]

Took me a good 35 minutes this morning lol so I'm glad you can make something of it

Do you have time to also edit your post and list the heights in metres and the position of their team on the ladder at the moment
I will run a multi factor analysis could be a worlds first on forums
It will tell us which of weight height or team position are most important and to what degree
If you are swamped I will pull that data

Wrighty

Thanks for working with me on this Tookey

Also very important question did you include everyone with more than 37 Minutes
Ideally nobody is missing

 

[Tony Martin]

wont be the only one in the warriors jnrs to go to sevens / rugby

Who is the other?

 

[Paulo24]

Hmm I think you're backtracking a wee bit. I was saying weight does not to be a significant factor in how good a prop is, where you said there is a correlation that suggests it is. Of course there's a small correlation, but imo as long as your between 104-125kg I don't think weight dictates anything. Heres a list of props meters per game and their weight. Maybe with your experience in stats you can pull more out than I can, but weight seems to be very random. Note - all players average over 37 minutes a game except for T Sipley

P Haas 164.3 117kg
J Tapine 160.3 106kg
D Klemmer 156.1 116kg
Big Tino 154.7 107kg
Addin Fonua-Blake 153.4 123kg
RFG 148 115kg
Fisher Harris 143.2 104kg
Tom Burgess 140.6 120kg
Jnr Paulo 140.4 123kg
Paul Vaughan 134.3 110kg
T Tatola 133.6 114kg
Josh Aloiai 130.9 106kg
JWH 128.9 116kg
NAS 123.2 115kg
Reuben Cotter 123.1 95kg
Josh Pap 122.8 119kg
D Saifiti 118.8 121kg
Jordan McLean 115.5 118kg
Flegler 112.3 110kg
M Taupau 104.5 112kg
Lindsay Collins 98.8 106kg
Bunty 85.2 113kg
T Sipley - 73.1 (30 min average) 120kg
Aaron Woods 69.9 112kg
Emre Guler 66.6 112kg

Force is weight plus speed. Then you add balance and how people shift their weight, as well as agility etc, it’s definitely more than just size.

 

[Toookey]

Do you have time to also edit your post and list the heights in metres and the position of their team on the ladder at the moment
I will run a multi factor analysis could be a worlds first on forums
It will tell us which of weight height or team position are most important and to what degree
If you are swamped I will pull that data

Wrighty

Thanks for working with me on this Tookey

Also very important question did you include everyone with more than 37 Minutes
Ideally nobody is missing

Oh nah, I haven't put everyone there, I just wanted a good amount of players, I'm sure they're are plenty more who have played 37 minutes plus.
Maybe we can revisit this another time? I'm currently in Wellington and pretty hung over after Beervana lol, so maybe I'll dm you and we can get the full stats in a few days