General 2021 ladder prediction

[wizards rage]

I’ve been looking through the squads and am doing some crystal ball gazing to fill in time before the season starts.

Here’s my prediction for the ladder in 2021:

1 - Raiders (personal bias!)
2 - Storm
3 - Eels
4 - Panthers
5 - Warriors (rose tinted glasses)
6 - Roosters
7 - Souths
8 - Titans

9 - Knights
10 - Sharks
11 - Bulldogs
12 - Broncos
13 - Tigers
14 - Manly
15 - St George
16 - Cowboys (sorry Todd)

Looking at it, I can see a clear divide between the top and bottom teams and I think the Warriors fit well in the top half.

It will be interesting to look back at year end.

 

[eudebrito]

Last season was a real haves and have nots, had 6 really good teams who could have made the grand final, the knights and sharks in a bit of a grey zone where if they'd had less injuries might have done something, and then the rest (including the warriors and titans) were all pretty far off, bottom of the table in particular, awful.

20 games instead of 24 makes the table look a bit closer than it was, big gap opened up as the year went on. That might be a one off where the teams making up the numbers gave up more than usual, with no home crowds to play for.

Now this year only the warriors and titans look to be improved enough from the dud teams to challenge for the 8 with the sharks the obvious candidate to fall out.

-panthers - top 4
-storm - kind of sucks how they've just replaced smith with grant, top 4
-rabbitohs - should be better this year - top 4
-raiders - top 6
-eels - contract year for moses, jennings is a pretty big loss though, borderline top 6
-roosters - maybe sliding a bit, but not sliding out of the top 6

-titans - still a chance cam smith may just roll up to training one day and then really watch out. borderline 8 as they are now.

-knights - tricky, might have missed their window with pearce, he's on the downhill, good forwards, backs rely too much on the fullback, not dissimilar to the warriors - borderline.

-warriors - neck and neck with brown's old team and the tits for the 7/8 spots

-sharks - well out of the 8 with no johnson.
-sea eagles - fainu stabbing actually ruined this team and now their strong forward pack is depleted as well. chance of bottom four
-tigers - such a forgettable team, 11th ish
-dragons - bottom four locks. rebooting the 2013 broncos brains trust except now those players are rich and lazy is comical.
-cowboys - a chance that finally getting a new coach that they bounce back again, todd paytens follow up act will be interesting. relies on morgan and holmes not being passengers though, seems unlikely.
-bulldogs - lots of new faces - unlikely to go from 3 wins to 12 wins necessary for finals though.
-broncos - shouldn't come last but, no.

 

[Defence]

I’ve been looking through the squads and am doing some crystal ball gazing to fill in time before the season starts.

Here’s my prediction for the ladder in 2021:

1 - Raiders (personal bias!)
2 - Storm
3 - Eels
4 - Panthers
5 - Warriors (rose tinted glasses)
6 - Roosters
7 - Souths
8 - Titans

9 - Knights
10 - Sharks
11 - Bulldogs
12 - Broncos
13 - Tigers
14 - Manly
15 - St George
16 - Cowboys (sorry Todd)

Looking at it, I can see a clear divide between the top and bottom teams and I think the Warriors fit well in the top half.

It will be interesting to look back at year end.

I’d probably have souths a bit higher up but yip same top 8 for me.

 

[Dunedin warrior]

Last season was a real haves and have nots, had 6 really good teams who could have made the grand final, the knights and sharks in a bit of a grey zone where if they'd had less injuries might have done something, and then the rest (including the warriors and titans) were all pretty far off, bottom of the table in particular, awful.

20 games instead of 24 makes the table look a bit closer than it was, big gap opened up as the year went on. That might be a one off where the teams making up the numbers gave up more than usual, with no home crowds to play for.

Now this year only the warriors and titans look to be improved enough from the dud teams to challenge for the 8 with the sharks the obvious candidate to fall out.

-panthers - top 4
-storm - kind of sucks how they've just replaced smith with grant, top 4
-rabbitohs - should be better this year - top 4
-raiders - top 6
-eels - contract year for moses, jennings is a pretty big loss though, borderline top 6
-roosters - maybe sliding a bit, but not sliding out of the top 6

-titans - still a chance cam smith may just roll up to training one day and then really watch out. borderline 8 as they are now.

-knights - tricky, might have missed their window with pearce, he's on the downhill, good forwards, backs rely too much on the fullback, not dissimilar to the warriors - borderline.

-warriors - neck and neck with brown's old team and the tits for the 7/8 spots*

-sharks - well out of the 8 with no johnson.
-sea eagles - fainu stabbing actually ruined this team and now their strong forward pack is depleted as well. chance of bottom four
-dragons - bottom four locks. rebooting the 2013 broncos brains trust except now those players are rich and lazy is comical.
-cowboys - a chance that finally getting a new coach that they bounce back again, todd paytens follow up act will be interesting. relies on morgan and holmes not being passengers though, seems unlikely.
-bulldogs - lots of new faces - unlikely to go from 3 wins to 12 wins necessary for finals though.
-broncos - shouldn't come last but, no.

I think your tiers are pretty much bang on, although I’d throw Manly into the Warriors, Knights Tigers tier. They blooded a lot of young players last year and should be better for this. Of course it all depends on Tommy T’s dodgy hamstrings.

 

[Sup42]

I think provided we get lucky with injury, that we will finish high up the table, top four.

There are lots of reasons why a fit Warriors team with all its main forwards turning out will do well this year.


Key players in that pack we need to see go a full season are our hooker, Harris, Katoa, and Ben Murdoch-Masila.

Harris and Katoa are the main guys that could make having a very big pack work under the new rules.

They are big units who can play a full game, that gives the bench a real chance to roll on one big dude after another.

That means our size across the park is maintained for a whole game. Addin Fonua-Blake and a player like Leeson are very balanced as a pairing, one is consistent and steady, an ox who tackles, the other is a wrecking ball.

Being in Aussie is a no brainer, the Warriors should move there permanently. But that will not happen, which is why this is our year....the Warriors will likely spend nearly the whole season over there.

The hothouse environment is what they need, the Warriors weakness is primarily mental. Being in Aus solves a lot of that.

They have a problem with the Reffs, this year they have NRL MEGA phone Gould to blast away at the judiciary with a Warriors focus.

That will help them no end.

As we have seen, Gould has spent a lot of time with the team, he is a charismatic figure, exactly the sought of Aussie that Daniel Anderson is, someone who gives a good talk and lifts those guys heads.

Our meterage game will be among the best, you have the back three plus this year....big hit ups off the back of big wingers and Roger two hundred meters, it works really well for the kiwis, it will work well for the Warriors.... that will certainly help our lack of a long kicking game, Stacey got away with it in his day, this side should face up against anyone and give it back to them with interest.

But if we lose our star forwards, the big mobile back row, our star prop....forget about it...another year fighting for bottom eight....that is the differnce between us and the Storm and Roosters, they can lose a some stars and still win.

 

[Defence]

that will certainly help our lack of a long kicking game, Stacey got away with it in his day, this side should face up against anyone and give it back to them with interest.

Stacey couldn’t kick the skin off a rice pudding but had a great short kicking game.
Puzzles me that we come from a union mad country yet struggle to produce halves with a solid kicking game?
It’s always been a weakness in nz developed halves.
I actually thought Chanel Harris-Tavita had a decent boot on him? Hopefully he’s been working hard on it otherwise we’re gonna have to go to the market next year imo.
Maybe we can get away without a long kicking game but I’d rather we had one- youre not gonna win the go forward battle every set, every week.

 

[Five&Last]

1. Rabbitohs
2. Panthers
3. Storm
4. Roosters
5. Raiders
6. Eels
7. Warriors
8. Titans

9. Knights
10. Sea Eagles
11. Sharks
12. Broncos
13. Tigers
14. Bulldogs
15. Cowboys
16. Dragons

 

[wizards rage]

I think provided we get lucky with injury, that we will finish high up the table, top four.

There are lots of reasons why a fit Warriors team with all its main forwards turning out will do well this year.


Key players in that pack we need to see go a full season are our hooker, Harris, Katoa, and Ben Murdoch-Masila.

Harris and Katoa are the main guys that could make having a very big pack work under the new rules.

They are big units who can play a full game, that gives the bench a real chance to roll on one big dude after another.

That means our size across the park is maintained for a whole game. Addin Fonua-Blake and a player like Leeson are very balanced as a pairing, one is consistent and steady, an ox who tackles, the other is a wrecking ball.

Being in Aussie is a no brainer, the Warriors should move there permanently. But that will not happen, which is why this is our year....the Warriors will likely spend nearly the whole season over there.

The hothouse environment is what they need, the Warriors weakness is primarily mental. Being in Aus solves a lot of that.

They have a problem with the Reffs, this year they have NRL MEGA phone Gould to blast away at the judiciary with a Warriors focus.

That will help them no end.

As we have seen, Gould has spent a lot of time with the team, he is a charismatic figure, exactly the sought of Aussie that Daniel Anderson is, someone who gives a good talk and lifts those guys heads.

Our meterage game will be among the best, you have the back three plus this year....big hit ups off the back of big wingers and Roger two hundred meters, it works really well for the kiwis, it will work well for the Warriors.... that will certainly help our lack of a long kicking game, Stacey got away with it in his day, this side should face up against anyone and give it back to them with interest.

But if we lose our star forwards, the big mobile back row, our star prop....forget about it...another year fighting for bottom eight....that is the differnce between us and the Storm and Roosters, they can lose a some stars and still win.

Nice summary... everything going perfect I could see us scraping into the top 4 but it rarely goes perfect.

Our big weakness is the halves - kicking game, game management and attacking structure. The season hinges on how they perform. Longer term upgrading Kodi; or Chanel Harris-Tavita developing into world class, is potentially the difference between consistent top 4 contenders and a mid table team.

 

[eudebrito]

it will be interesting to see how much a forward pack matter in the modern game, what with all the outside backs expected to rack up 100m and the faster pace, does having 5 big ball carrying forwards on the field at all times mean as much as it used to? and can a platform like that make up for a backline where every single player except the fullback has shown some pretty big issues.

ken - slow on the turn, sheer amount of donkey work he does limits any attacks out to the left.
fusitua - hasn't developed beyond finishing and bomb defusal, seemed to lack motivation recently. not a speedster either.
aitken - can't/won't pass. his winger will be pissed by round 4. does the other stuff well.
hiku - prone to arm grabbing like hes a midget halfback not a 100kg center.
kodi - can't find consistency, target in defence, no long kicking game
chanel - still a boy, not a particularly dynamic either, has to be an effort and decision making type halfback.

definitely exciting to see a new look team though

 

[Dunedin warrior]

it will be interesting to see how much a forward pack matter in the modern game, what with all the outside backs expected to rack up 100m and the faster pace, does having 5 big ball carrying forwards on the field at all times mean as much as it used to? and can a platform like that make up for a backline where every single player except the fullback has shown some pretty big issues.

ken - slow on the turn, sheer amount of donkey work he does limits any attacks out to the left.
fusitua - hasn't developed beyond finishing and bomb defusal, seemed to lack motivation recently. not a speedster either.
aitken - can't/won't pass. his winger will be pissed by round 4. does the other stuff well.
hiku - prone to arm grabbing like hes a midget halfback not a 100kg center.
kodi - can't find consistency, target in defence, no long kicking game
chanel - still a boy, not a particularly dynamic either, has to be an effort and decision making type halfback.

definitely exciting to see a new look team though

Great summary agree with everything there. My other concern is our spine depth is very thin. If Egan in particular or Kodi goes down we are in big trouble. Turner has talent but I think it would leave too much work for Chanel Harris-Tavita if they were paired up in the halves at the moment.

 

[Five&Last]

I’ve been looking through the squads and am doing some crystal ball gazing to fill in time before the season starts.

Here’s my prediction for the ladder in 2021:

1 - Raiders (personal bias!)
2 - Storm
3 - Eels
4 - Panthers
5 - Warriors (rose tinted glasses)
6 - Roosters
7 - Souths
8 - Titans

9 - Knights
10 - Sharks
11 - Bulldogs
12 - Broncos
13 - Tigers
14 - Manly
15 - St George
16 - Cowboys (sorry Todd)

Looking at it, I can see a clear divide between the top and bottom teams and I think the Warriors fit well in the top half.

It will be interesting to look back at year end.

Had the same top 8 just in a different order, I think there’s a pretty large gap between them and bottom 8 right now.

Only team I can really see jumping up into the 8 is Manly if they can get a full season out of tommy turbo, but put them at 10th because I don’t think that’s likely.

Injuries permitting, Warriors have to make the 8 this year. No excuses.