I think the trend of the NRL getting harder and harder to predict is in full swing. I thought last was hard to guess a top 8 - this year is significantly harder.
You've got two top four teams in the Broncs and the Cowboys who are virtually unchanged. One with probably greater motivation this year, and one with unquestionably less (going back to back is way, way too hard, especially for a club winning its maiden premiership - that would suck so much emotion out of you). But, regardless of the situation, you've got to give two spots in the top 8 to these two.
Then you have three teams in the Roosters, Storm and Bunnies who have all been dominant in the last 4-5 years. All excellently coached, with enviable rosters, but equally, all with problems coming into this season. The Roosters problems are well documented, but losing your star fullback; 5/8; possibly halfback; your strike centre, this year; as well as your forward enforcer (JWH) and glue (Cordner) for the start of the season is a serious mountain to overcome. If they get behind the eight ball too early, they may really struggle to recover. Then you have the Bunnies with massive reports of rifts coming out of their camp, and have been for a while - between Crowe blowing up at players, Burgesses return squeezing out popular members of the squad and the fairly regular whisperings of the players discontent with the coach... All is not happy in Bunny land. And finally the Storm, who's biggest issue is their aging star trio... Can they really keep it going another year? Probably.
Then there's the Bulldogs, Sharks and Dragons. Finalists last year, but in my opinion, shaky ones. The only one out of these three to genuinely improve their roster is the Sharks. I think the Dogs will really struggle with this interchange rule change, as well as - in my opinion - their complete lack of halves, and lack luster outside backs. The Dragons... Well, they're hard to read.
Then you have the chasing pack from last year, who all share a common theme. Between us, the Eels, the Panthers and Manly, we have all in some way DRAMATICALLY improved our rosters - us, the Eels and Manly through imports, the Panthers through a huge return to health. Not everyone one of these teams is going to miss playoffs. In fact, I'd be surprised if less then half made the playoffs. Hmmm.
Then you have the Raiders, who to me are like the Dragons, really tough to read.
Before finally we get to the bottom feeders, Knights, Titans and Tigers. Sorry guys!
So, with that said;
1. Broncos
2. Storm
3. Sharks
4. Sea Eagles
5. Cowboys
6. Rabbitohs
7. Warriors
8. Eels
9. Raiders
10. Dragons
11. Bulldogs
12. Roosters
13. Panthers
14. Titans
15. Tigers
16. Knights